Realistic Playoff Scenarios

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:32 am

Cal Poly getting stung was mainly due to their non-automatic bid conference. Plus, one win was vs. Humboldt State. They also dropped a pair of games late in the season. Most of the teams they beat were below .500. Not too sure, but I think MSU may have been the only .500+ team they beat.

Bleedinbluengold · Post by **Bleedinbluengold** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:07 am

It seems to me that if we win 3 of 4, the Cats will be ranked in the top 16, and will have a very good chance of making the playoffs. I'm not so sure the BSC won't have 3 teams this year. PSU will lose again, and be done. So will ISU.

2 of the Cats' remaining games are against higher ranked opponents, and they will most likely be in the top 10. That assumes that Eastern and Montana continue to win the games they should.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:17 am

We need to take care of our 2 home games the next few weeks and then the playoffs start for us against EWU. That is the mindset this team must have going into the EWU game. Lose and you are probably going to be going home. They cannot have any inclination that a 7-4 team might make it because that is probably going to be 20% chance at best I bet. Every game left on our schedule is a winneable game (with 3 of 4 at home) and we need to start getting our backs against the wall. The EWU is a HUGE game. We win that game and we come home FIRED up and ready to take on our rival knowing the Big Sky is ours for the taking.

However, we still have 2 home games to play here before we can even think about EWU. NAU and Sac St. are NOT going to lie down for us. If we don't play well they (like Sac St. last year) can come in and shock you.

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:03 pm

Here's one that's a little more complicated: MSU could lose to either NAU or SSU and still win the league by beating both UM and EW. If that happens all three would be 5-2 in the league and MSU would have a sweep of EW and UM.

If PSU beats UM in a couple weeks, then MSU probably would not be able to afford losses to NAU or SSU. PSU plays NAU at home this week, then at UM then at ISU, then vs. WSU. So there could be a four-way tie at 5-2. If so, then EW has the big edge right now with wins over UM and PSU. But if a scenario plays out that has MSU losing to either NAU or SSU and beating both UM and EW and PSU losing to UM, then MSU would win that tie-breaker. First EW and MSU would advance because they are 2-1 vs. the other three, then MSU would beat out EW because it won head-to-head.

Right now I think EW will go 6-1 and win the league with MSU, PSU and UM tied at 5-2. Since those three would all have split amongst each other and lost to EW and all are 7-4 oveall, then I believe whoever beat the No. 5 team should be No. 2. But....they would all have beaten Nos. 5-6-7-8, so then what? I don't know if the league even has a tie-breaker for second place, so I guess it'd just be left a tie. At that point it'd be up to the selection committee, I guess.

But I'm not so sure EW is a lock to beat Weber this weekend, so who knows. It 'might' be easier to sort out after a couple more weeks.