Preseason Poll

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Tue May 24, 2005 6:11 pm

P.S. That aside -- the Griz won't miss the playoffs next year. I don't know if we'll win the BSC, but we will be in the hunt, just like we always have been for the past 15 years. Don't worry about us; we're fine.

Typical response from a fizzly (OK- headed for the smack board)- think they walk on water, but the ice is melting fast! Just a reminder that "Denny stadium" is on the bottom of what was Lake Missoula.

theblackgecko · Post by **theblackgecko** » Tue May 24, 2005 6:49 pm

So any Cat fans going to call a home playoff game at Reno H. Sales stadium?

Actually, I'll go out on a limb...

...

...

...

...

Hawks 47, Falcons 24

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Tue May 24, 2005 7:20 pm

GOKATS wrote:Typical response from a fizzly (OK- headed for the smack board)- think they walk on water, but the ice is melting fast! Just a reminder that "Denny stadium" is on the bottom of what was Lake Missoula.

Hey, grasshopper -- after you've been here a while and put up more than 13 posts, maybe you'll realize that I'm really not a trash talking poster. If I honestly thought the Griz were going to stink next year, I'd admit it.

The reality is, the only major question mark we have is at qb -- and yes, if Berquist and Washington both suck as badly as Cat fans hope they will, it will be a long year for us.

Personally, I think we'll be fine at QB -- we may not have someone as good as Meyer or Lulay, but the guys we have will get the job done, and we have enough studs at other skill positions that our team will be fine. I'm not picking them to win the Super Bowl, or even, possibly, the conference -- all I said was that they will be a contender. If you think that constitutes me thinking that we "walk on water," then I think your world view may be a bit out of alignment.

Cheers,

--GL

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Tue May 24, 2005 7:34 pm

No, I don't see the Griz having a bad season. But I do see the possibility of them losing the BSC title.

That's a bad season.

gtapp · Post by **gtapp** » Tue May 24, 2005 9:54 pm

I had the griz finishing fourth last year in my preseason prediction and I was so confident that I placed a bet on this site. That did not work out too well. Now this year they again look to be much weaker on paper. Somehow they always seem to come up with the weapons. I think that Hauck is not as good of a coach as the griz are used too but he seems to have surrounded himself with good assitant coaches and they always recruit well because of their success and the game experience in missoula that you don't get anywhere else. I think third is fair this year but they always should be favored to win the BSC. They have been king of the hill for a long time and until someone unseats them they will be favored.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:02 am

Meat,

Correct me if I'm wrong (like I need to tell you to do that!), but as long as the Griz don't face one of the top 4 seeds in the playoffs, they can BUY a home game, can't they?

Cat-theotherwhitemeat · Post by **Cat-theotherwhitemeat** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:19 am

El_Gato wrote:Meat,

Correct me if I'm wrong (like I need to tell you to do that!), but as long as the Griz don't face one of the top 4 seeds in the playoffs, they can BUY a home game, can't they?

Yeah, I think they can still get a home game with a higher bid, but I just don't think they make the playoff's at all with that scenario we pointed out with them taking 3rd in the Sky and no real quality OOC wins. That's what I meant. Of course, there is the Grizzly bias that could get them in.

mquast53000 · Post by **mquast53000** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:24 am

Of course, there is the Grizzly bias that could get them in.

I think that same bias would get them in if they finished 7-4.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:26 am

Based on tradition, I would be STUNNED if they didn't get in with an 8-3 record; remember, neither the Oregon loss nor the Fort Lewis High win count, so they essentially present a 7-2 record, with the 2 losses coming against top 25 teams that are in the playoffs.

Don't worry, Meat, as long as you are no worse than 8-3, you'll get in again...

Quast, I disagree; I don't think even the almighty Griz will get in if they fall as far as 7-4.

Cat-theotherwhitemeat · Post by **Cat-theotherwhitemeat** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:28 am

Ok, now that I've thought about it, I think they could get in with 3 losses to the pre-mentioned teams. However, I still don't think they get a home game as they will be ranked low (13,14,15, or 16) enough to get a trip to a top 4 seeded team.

There, I've finally said what I initially meant. That was hard.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:30 am

I find a shot of Jack always help heal a severe brain-pull, Meat; feel free!

Cat-theotherwhitemeat · Post by **Cat-theotherwhitemeat** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:35 am

El_Gato wrote:I find a shot of Jack always help heal a severe brain-pull, Meat; feel free!

I've given up enough brain cells to Jack, Jim, and some gold crap with a worm in it. They don't get anymore from me. At my old age of 38 it's either Bud Light or some mysterious can of warm Oly that I keep hearing about.

A friend once said to me..."remember that time in 87....." Nope.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Wed May 25, 2005 11:58 am

mquast53000 wrote:I think that same bias would get them in if they finished 7-4.

I don't think we'd get in at 7-4 with this year's schedule (nor should we).

There may be some Grizzly bias on the committee (it's difficult to say because, honestly, it's been a long time since we've had a year when you could really make an argument that we definitely *shouldn't* be in the playoffs -- I'm not trying to talk smack here, but it's true), but even if there is some bias, I don't think it would get us in at 7-4. Remember, a few years back Youngstown State didn't get in with a 9-2 record, and the stated reason was that they had two D-II teams on their schedule (which, effectively, made them 7-2 for the year, if you want to look at it that way). At that time, Youngstown was a program that had similar notoriety to what UM has, but the "Youngstown bias" didn't work for them, and I doubt it would work for us.

Hell's Bells · Post by **Hell's Bells** » Wed May 25, 2005 12:08 pm

Grizlaw wrote:
mquast53000 wrote:I think that same bias would get them in if they finished 7-4.
I don't think we'd get in at 7-4 with this year's schedule (nor should we).

There may be some Grizzly bias on the committee (it's difficult to say because, honestly, it's been a long time since we've had a year when you could really make an argument that we definitely *shouldn't* be in the playoffs -- I'm not trying to talk smack here, but it's true), but even if there is some bias, I don't think it would get us in at 7-4. Remember, a few years back Youngstown State didn't get in with a 9-2 record, and the stated reason was that they had two D-II teams on their schedule (which, effectively, made them 7-2 for the year, if you want to look at it that way). At that time, Youngstown was a program that had similar notoriety to what UM has, but the "Youngstown bias" didn't work for them, and I doubt it would work for us.

there would be a reason for the griz to get in with a 7-4 record....seems as if that team has been quite successful the last like 20 years or so. I'd hate to make a argument for the instate rival but i think their history of success should be one of the reasons why they should be able to get in the playoffs with a 7-4 record with a 14-16 scede

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Wed May 25, 2005 12:27 pm

mquast53000 wrote:
Of course, there is the Grizzly bias that could get them in.
I think that same bias would get them in if they finished 7-4.

You dont get invited to the dance with 4 loses. Nobody does.

Post by **kmax** » Wed May 25, 2005 12:30 pm

Eastcoastgriz wrote:
mquast53000 wrote:
Of course, there is the Grizzly bias that could get them in.
I think that same bias would get them in if they finished 7-4.
You dont get invited to the dance with 4 loses. Nobody does.

Technically the criteria is changed this year such that they are focusing on Div I wins instead of losses. It now reads something to the effect of any team with fewer than 7 Div I wins will be in jeapordy on not being considered for an at-large bid, whereas it use to read more than 3 losses.

But 7-4 still leaves the Griz, or any other team with a Div II as one of their wins, home come thanksgiving weekend.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Wed May 25, 2005 12:41 pm

kmax wrote:Technically the criteria is changed this year such that they are focusing on Div I wins instead of losses. It now reads something to the effect of any team with fewer than 7 Div I wins will be in jeapordy on not being considered for an at-large bid, whereas it use to read more than 3 losses.

But 7-4 still leaves the Griz, or any other team with a Div II as one of their wins, home come thanksgiving weekend.

The thing is, regardless of which way the rule is framed, if the committee lets in a team with a 7-4 record (barring very unusual circumstances, like two of their losses coming against Michigan and USC), it is inevitable that more deserving teams will be left out. I'm not saying that never happens; I'm just saying it *shouldn't* happen, and I don't think it would.

I also think it's overly simplistic to just look at it in terms of D-I wins vs. D-II wins, or I-AA wins vs. I-A, because not every team at every level is the same. All else equal, an 8-3 team that got taken to the woodshed by Idaho should not be treated the same as an 8-3 team that lost a close game to Oregon or Oklahoma State, but under the current "rules," those games are treated the same. Similarly, we all know that there are some top D-II teams that are better than the bottom of the barrel I-AA teams. I realize there has to be some line-drawing somewhere, but I would like to think that with respect to fringe teams, the committee looks at teams' actual performances against teams instead of just treating all opponents in each division the same and comparing records.

Post by **kmax** » Wed May 25, 2005 12:48 pm

Grizlaw wrote:
kmax wrote:Technically the criteria is changed this year such that they are focusing on Div I wins instead of losses. It now reads something to the effect of any team with fewer than 7 Div I wins will be in jeapordy on not being considered for an at-large bid, whereas it use to read more than 3 losses.

But 7-4 still leaves the Griz, or any other team with a Div II as one of their wins, home come thanksgiving weekend.
The thing is, regardless of which way the rule is framed, if the committee lets in a team with a 7-4 record (barring very unusual circumstances, like two of their losses coming against Michigan and USC), it is inevitable that more deserving teams will be left out. I'm not saying that never happens; I'm just saying it *shouldn't* happen, and I don't think it would.

I also think it's overly simplistic to just look at it in terms of D-I wins vs. D-II wins, or I-AA wins vs. I-A, because not every team at every level is the same. All else equal, an 8-3 team that got taken to the woodshed by Idaho should not be treated the same as an 8-3 team that lost a close game to Oregon or Oklahoma State, but under the current "rules," those games are treated the same. Similarly, we all know that there are some top D-II teams that are better than the bottom of the barrel I-AA teams. I realize there has to be some line-drawing somewhere, but I would like to think that with respect to fringe teams, the committee looks at teams' actual performances against teams instead of just treating all opponents in each division the same and comparing records.

Exactly, which is why the 7 win/3 loss thing has been and is just a guideline, not a hard and fast rule. I was just noting that the guideline that the selection commitee is to use now focuses on D-I wins, not losses as before.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Wed May 25, 2005 6:25 pm

Grizlaw wrote:...we all know that there are some top D-II teams that are better than the bottom of the barrel I-AA teams....

Hrmmm... that brings back memories of a few years ago when the Griz lost to NoDak, at the time a D-II team...

And that Griz team was not by any means "bottom of the barrel." Goes back to the old saying "Any given Sunday...", or in this case, Saturday

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Wed May 25, 2005 6:28 pm

grizzh8r wrote:
Grizlaw wrote:...we all know that there are some top D-II teams that are better than the bottom of the barrel I-AA teams....
Hrmmm... that brings back memories of a few years ago when the Griz lost to NoDak, at the time a D-II team... And that Griz team was not by any means "bottom of the barrel." Goes back to the old saying "Any given Sunday...", or in this case, Saturday

I dont think we have to go very far back to find a D-II team that beat the cats.