How will Big Sky Standings end up?

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 11:10 am

Cardiac, my point being is that it is too early to determine if MSU or EWU has a better defense or not. And if you want to take the weather into account, EWU held ISU to those numbers on the road in the dome, while the Cats had the benefit of playing at home in the natural elements.

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 11:14 am

Cardiac and Quast, On the otherhand, I believe that the Griz have a pretty darn good running defense, but they will probably allow every quarterback in the league have a career passing day.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 11:21 am

girzindahouse - You are one of a handful of objective griz posters on this site... Thank you for your rationality, as it is a breath of fresh air.

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 11:29 am

grizzh8r, how about this one as well. Until the Griz show that they are willing to throw a pass further than 5 yards down the field, unless it is 3rd and 18, should any defense play fewer than 8-9 guys within 5 yards of the line. And everyone that thinks that Hilliard can have big running games, how often will it get in the open with every defensive guy in the box.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 12:07 pm

house,

Bottom line right now is that, as always, Big Sky offenses are ahead of Big Sky defenses, INCLUDING THE GRIZ. Nobodies D is coming close to dominating their opponents; as evidenced by the "best D in the Big Sky" giving up 483 yards to the team picked dead last in the polls AT HOME.

As I've taken to saying this season: IMO Weber St. and the Griz are the underdogs in their games this weekend and underdogs generally lose.

Does that mean 1 or both of them can't or won't win? Of course not, I'm simply saying who I'd pick based on EVERYTHING that's happened to this point in 2005. If you'd pick either game differently, please specify why.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 12:28 pm

grizindahouse wrote:Cardiac, my point being is that it is too early to determine if MSU or EWU has a better defense or not. And if you want to take the weather into account, EWU held ISU to those numbers on the road in the dome, while the Cats had the benefit of playing at home in the natural elements.

Yeah, its still early to tell. The next 2-3 weeks are really going to heat things up in the standings.

raincat · Post by **raincat** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:06 pm

Something deep down keeps telling me ISU will handle the griz. However, something deeper down says "shut up and watch". The last time I felt the griz were going to get worked over was 4 or 5 years ago when the played PSU. They were beat up and bruised; playing in a packed high school stadium in Hillsboro while the Portland Civic Stadium was under remodel. This was the Jimmy Blanchard gang, maybe the best PSU team ever...primed and ready for the griz. Giving credit where it's due...the griz sucked it up and won on defense and will power. When it comes to the griz, I'm from Missouri. All I need to keep me happy is for somebody to "show me" that they beat them.

Go CATS!

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:08 pm

Gato, I would agree with you. But I also think that the Cat-Weber game will be closer than many Cat fans would like, since I am not completely sold on the Cat rush defense.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:21 pm

For the record, my pick is MSU 24, WSU 23. I'm really not sure this Bobcat team has the mindset yet to blow out a solid Big Sky or I-AA team; but I do believe we'll win.

Also, although we HAVE given up a lot of yards on the ground, the teams we've played PREFER to run. The Bobcats 5 opponents run the ball 62% of the time, based on their games thus far. The fact that we've held teams, on average, 8% below their average yards/game and 31% below their average points/game, tells me that our defense IS doing a decent job, especially considering our difficult schedule.

Weber MAY very well run the ball effectively but as long as they don't WIN, that's fine with me. Being a Griz fan, you should be able to relate; giving them 483 yards last week was no doubt easier to take with a W than it would have been with an L...

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:22 pm

[quote="El_Gato"]house,

Bottom line right now is that, as always, Big Sky offenses are ahead of Big Sky defenses, INCLUDING THE GRIZ. Nobodies D is coming close to dominating their opponents; as evidenced by the "best D in the Big Sky" giving up 483 yards to the team picked dead last in the polls AT HOME.

As I've taken to saying this season: IMO Weber St. and the Griz are the underdogs in their games this weekend and underdogs generally lose.

Does that mean 1 or both of them can't or won't win? Of course not, I'm simply saying who I'd pick based on EVERYTHING that's happened to this point in 2005. If you'd pick either game differently, please specify why.[/quote]

How does a team have only 19 points to show for 483 yards? UM did this all the time last year, too. Most of the time teams racked up yards after games were in hand last year.

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:31 pm

[quote="grizbeer]This is a must win for MSU on the other hand, because this should be the easiest road game MSU has. Lose this game and it is an uphill battle for the rest of the season.[/quote]

For tiebreaker purposes it's better to lose to a team that finishes lower in the standings. The way it looks right now, it won't hurt MSU as much to lose this week as it would UM. If ISU beats UM, then they win t-bs with EW and UM in head-to-head and three-way. ISU also would likely win a 4-way tie with EW, UM and MSU, if they beat UM and all four finish 5-2.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:32 pm

well, last weeks game was not a case of the Griz ever having the game in hand.

They were a dropped pass away from an L.

I will say that there are 2 areas where the Griz D impresses me; that is in taking away the ball and in the red zone. They give up a TON of yards between the 20's but once you break their 20, they do a nice job preventing TD's.

Even with their win vs Weber last week, though, I'm not convinced their D is nearly as good as most griz fans think. We'll have another piece of the puzzle in about 26 hours...

grizbeer · Post by **grizbeer** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:04 pm

iaafan wrote:[quote="grizbeer]This is a must win for MSU on the other hand, because this should be the easiest road game MSU has. Lose this game and it is an uphill battle for the rest of the season.

For tiebreaker purposes it's better to lose to a team that finishes lower in the standings. The way it looks right now, it won't hurt MSU as much to lose this week as it would UM. If ISU beats UM, then they win t-bs with EW and UM in head-to-head and three-way. ISU also would likely win a 4-way tie with EW, UM and MSU, if they beat UM and all four finish 5-2.[/quote]Good point about the tie breaker, but that is only important as far as the auto-bid. If the Griz only lose to ISU and MSU they are in the playoffs anyways.

If MSU loses to WSU this week their backs are against the wall, as they then need to win all their home games, and at least 1 on the road against EWU or PSU just to get to a 5-2 tiebreaker, and at this point that looks a lot tougher than beating WSU at home.

I am not saying either teams season is over with a loss this weekend, just that, given the remainder of the season, Montana State with 2 tough road games left (PSU, EWU) has a little steeper hill to climb than UM with 1 tough road game (MSU).