I-AA West: Big Sky, Big Mystery

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Good read about the BSC race:

This season’s Big Sky Conference race, much like the entire I-AA level of football this year, has been like one of those good murder movie mysteries. It just keeps you guessing as the movies plays on whom the killer is and this Big Sky season just keeps you guessing each week who is taking charge in the league.
This season is looking a lot like 2002 and 2003 in the BSC. A look back in history shows both of those seasons had three way ties for the title. Both years had teams tied with 5-2 in-conference records. In both 2002 and 2003, Montana State won the league’s automatic bid despite 7-5 overall regular season records each year. Montana made it as the only at-large team in 2002. Idaho State tied for the Big Sky crown in 2002 but was left out of the playoffs despite an 8-3 record. Montana and Northern Arizona made the playoffs as at-large participants in 2003.

Just like the final 2003 I-AA.org Gridiron Power Index, the Big Sky Conference is currently the best rated conference. We'll likely have similar results come at this season’s end.

Big Sky Conference Standings
After Oct. 15 Games
Conf. Overall
W-L W-L
Eastern Washington 3-1 4-2
Montana 2-1 4-2
Montana State 2-1 4-3
Portland State 2-1 4-3
Weber State 2-2 3-4
Idaho State 1-2 3-3
Sacramento State 1-2 2-5
Northern Arizona 0-3 2-4

Why is the Big Sky Conference rated as the top conference in the country yet not have a dominant team?
Parity from top to bottom of this league can be seen this year and the fact that the conference has lost just four games against non-conference I-AA opponents, while winning seven such match-ups. To the right are the current Big Sky Conference standings. As can be seen, every team has at lease one conference defeat and only one team has yet to win a conference matchup. And the surprising part is that this is after just three or four conference games for each team.

And the parity word can be stated again after this past weekend’s games—two losses by the previously conference undefeated teams in Montana and Montana State.

Montana, previously ranked second in the country, lost 34-20 to the now current Big Sky leaders, Eastern Washington in a place where the Grizzlies rarely see defeat—Washington-Grizzly Stadium. This game was dominated by the play of EWU quarterback Erik Meyer, who threw for 395 yards and five touchdowns in helping hand Montana their ninth league loss all-time at Washington-Grizzly Stadium—a facility opened in 1986. Montana has lost just 17 times all time at their home stadium in this timeframe. The Eagles have given the Grizzlies four of those losses, the most of any I-AA team.

The other Montana school, Montana State—previously ranked ninth in the country, lost at Portland State on a last second field goal set up by a forced fumble on a sack by the Vikings’ linebacker Joey King on MSU’s quarterback Travis Lulay. Fellow linebacker D.J. Robinson recovered the resulting fumble that set up place-kicker Eric Azorr’s 40-yard field goal as time expired for a 44-41 PSU victory.

Why does this league have such uniformity?
Probably the main reason for this season’s parity stems from the University of Montana’s play. In many of the past ten seasons, the Grizzlies have run away with the Big Sky race but it seems several of the other Big Sky schools have caught up with Montana with their talent and play on the field this year. The Grizzlies have won at least a share of the last seven Big Sky titles and nine of the past ten.

In keeping with the same theme of Montana, the Grizzlies seem to be rebuilding slightly this year on their offensive side of the ball. Montana has used two different quarterbacks— I-A Bowling Green transfer Jason Washington and red-shirt freshman Cole Bergquist. Inconsistency at the quarterback position was shown somewhat in the loss to Eastern Washington. Bergquist was starting his second career game after Washington was injured three weeks ago against Weber State. While Bergquist looked impressive in his first start against Idaho State the week previous and performed adequately in start two, he still showed some inexperience especially in one key play against EWU. That one play was a lateral pass by Bergquist that sailed over converted wide receiver (prior cornerback) Quinton Jackson’s head and the Eagles recovered early in the fourth quarter to take the wind out of the Grizzlies’ comeback. Montana had just recovered a EWU fumble the play prior on the kickoff following a Grizzly score to pull within 27-17.

Other Big Sky teams like Eastern Washington, Portland State, and Montana State have shown they can compete with the best that I-AA has to offer so far. And with these schools, all have shown a Big Sky specialty, offensive consistency and have strong offensive leadership.

Eastern Washington has senior leadership with quarterback Erik Meyer and wide reciever Eric Kimble. Montana State has senior quarterback Travis Lulay. Portland State has senior, albeit relatively inexperieced running back Joe Rubin.

Montana has experienced leaders in junior running back Lex Hilliard but he, along with senior wide receiver Jon Talmage, are really the only offensive specialists with experience on the Griz offense.

How will this Big Sky race end this season?
This likely is anyone’s guess right now as to who will win this conference. I feel it will likely be one of four teams, however. Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State, and Portland State look to me like the best four teams right now.

If I had to pick one team right now, that team would be Eastern Washington, as they seem like the most complete on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. The Eagles also have the luxury of having beaten two of the supposedly top conference teams in Montana and Portland State already. EWU also hosts the other top four Big Sky team Montana State to end their Big Sky schedule. The Eagles, however, do have two tough non-conference games remaining against two Great West Football Conference teams in traveling to Top 5 Cal Poly and hosting UC Davis. The remaining Big Sky games have the Eagles hosting Weber State and traveling to Sacramento State.

Montana State would be my second pick. The Bobcats have just conference games remaining in their last four games. Three of these four are at home with the only road game at Eastern Washington. MSU hosts Northern Arizona and Sacramento State in the next two weeks after having a bye this upcoming week and before traveling to Cheney. MSU ends the season, as they always do, against their in-state rivals, Montana.

It is kind of a toss up to me between Portland State and Montana for the third spot. Portland State has two home and two road games left this year with the two home games being against Northern Arizona and Weber State plus road games against Idaho State and Montana. Montana, besides hosting Portland State, has Cal Poly at home this week but that is the team’s only home games. The three road games for the Grizzlies are their last three games of the year; at Northern Arizona, Sacramento State and Montana State. Since Montana has Portland State at home they will get my third spot in the conference right now.

How many teams will the best league GPI-wise get into the playoffs?
You would think being the best league GPI-wise would be deserving of three playoff teams but it is improbable that the Big Sky will get that many given the number of quality teams in other conferences in the West region. Cal Poly looks like a team from the new Great West Football Conference that will make it and it is unlikely the Big Sky would get three teams while the other automatic I-AA West conference, the Southland gets just one team.

Only four times has the playoff committee, since moving to 16 teams in 1986 given this conference that many squads in the postseason. Once was two years ago as was mentioned earlier when Montana, Montana State, and Northern Arizona played in the playoffs. The other times were in 1994 (Montana, Boise State, Idaho), 1990 (Idaho, Boise State, Nevada), and 1988 (Montana, Idaho, Boise State). In those final three such occasions, the Big Sky had nine members whereas today it only has eight. Also of note, only once did a three-conference-loss team make the playoffs as an at-large team from the Big Sky Conference and that was Idaho in 1988.

Given that history and what else is happening in the I-AA West, I think the Big Sky will get just two teams in the playoffs unless something unforeseen happens like a team such as when the 2002 or 2003 Montana State teams won the automatic bid with a 7-4 or worse overall mark and ties two teams with better overall marks.

But with this 2005 season just about anything is possible it seems. Like a good murder mystery, it will be exciting to see how the plot turns the rest of the season in the Big Sky Conference.

http://www.i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=73388

[Catz Rock]

Great article!