Hero Sports: Game-by-Game & Win Total Predictions

[Bobcat Sig]

https://herosports.com/fcs-montana-stat ... ions-bzbz/

This should generate plenty of discussion.

[91catAlum]

I like this part:

If the defense ... can elevate its play, the Bobcats are a legitimate threat to win the national title. Not just a team that can get there or to the semifinals like previous years, but a team that can actually win it.

[MSUBRONCO]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

[catatac]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

Agree, and I posted a response to this but not seeing it now so probably messed it up. I said that if his prediction comes true, we would still likely end up seeded either #1 or #2 and enjoy home field all through playoffs. I say this because we would be ahead of UM, and likely would be ahead of at least one of the DSUs since they play each other. I suppose if the loser of that game has only one loss... there's a chance they'd still end up 1 or 2 but that is highly unlikely.

[MSU01]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

Agree, and I posted a response to this but not seeing it now so probably messed it up. I said that if his prediction comes true, we would still likely end up seeded either #1 or #2 and enjoy home field all through playoffs. I say this because we would be ahead of UM, and likely would be ahead of at least one of the DSUs since they play each other. I suppose if the loser of that game has only one loss... there's a chance they'd still end up 1 or 2 but that is highly unlikely.

After 2022 I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it highly unlikely!

[BleedingBLue]

I put this in the Off-Season thread, but this team is good enough to go 12-0.

If we aren't a 12-0 team, then I think our shot at a National Championship declines significantly, especially if that loss is to someone other than UM. The only team in the last 10 years to win a title and have 1 loss NOT to an FBS team, or even multiple losses in a season is NDSU. 3 of the years NDSU didn't go undefeated and won it all they lost 1 game, or 2(2015). Those 1 game seasons the loss was to SDSU. In 2015 losses were week 0 to UM and South Dakota mid-season. JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

[kmax]

JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

Considering 9 out of the 13 champions since 2010 were NDSU I'm not sure this statement is really that statistically relevant.

[coloradocat]

JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

Considering 9 out of the 13 champions since 2010 were NDSU I'm not sure this statement is really that statistically relevant.

Step 1: Be NSDSU
Step 2: Don't not be NDSU

But overall I agree with BleedingBLue. If you can't essentially roll through your regular season schedule, no matter what it looks like, you probably don't have much of a chance of winning the title.

[CodyCat]

JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

Considering 9 out of the 13 champions since 2010 were NDSU I'm not sure this statement is really that statistically relevant.

Step 1: Be NSDSU
Step 2: Don't not be NDSU

But overall I agree with BleedingBLue. If you can't essentially roll through your regular season schedule, no matter what it looks like, you probably don't have much of a chance of winning the title.

Im not exactly sure what you mean by "roll". But, NDSU in their title runs have had plenty of games that they barely won against FCS schools. Just gotta win!

[BleedingBLue]

JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

Considering 9 out of the 13 champions since 2010 were NDSU I'm not sure this statement is really that statistically relevant.

I think it is since the non NDSU teams - JMU, SHSU and SDSU twice, didn't lose an FCS game. And out of those 9 NDSU titles, 5 or 6 were in undefeated seasons. SDSU is the new NDSU. A rivalry game loss is almost a no matter type of things, but dropping a game to another conference foe doesn't bode well. There are 3, MAYBE 4 teams built to win it all. Idaho, Sac and Davis aren't one of those. Have to beat them.

[BleedingBLue]

JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

Considering 9 out of the 13 champions since 2010 were NDSU I'm not sure this statement is really that statistically relevant.

Step 1: Be NSDSU
Step 2: Don't not be NDSU

But overall I agree with BleedingBLue. If you can't essentially roll through your regular season schedule, no matter what it looks like, you probably don't have much of a chance of winning the title.

Im not exactly sure what you mean by "roll". But, NDSU in their title runs have had plenty of games that they barely won against FCS schools. Just gotta win!

This. Especially a tough road game against UC Davis. Doesn't matter if it's 21-20, as long as it's a win.

[catatac]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

Agree, and I posted a response to this but not seeing it now so probably messed it up. I said that if his prediction comes true, we would still likely end up seeded either #1 or #2 and enjoy home field all through playoffs. I say this because we would be ahead of UM, and likely would be ahead of at least one of the DSUs since they play each other. I suppose if the loser of that game has only one loss... there's a chance they'd still end up 1 or 2 but that is highly unlikely.

After 2022 I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it highly unlikely!

That's actually a really good point, I forgot about the DSU bias. If memory serves, Cats only had one loss (to FBS Oregon State), NDSU had two losses, an FBS team and SDSU yet they got seeded higher than MSU so we had to travel to Brookings? If I remembered that correctly, Grrrrrrrrr.

[MSU01]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

Agree, and I posted a response to this but not seeing it now so probably messed it up. I said that if his prediction comes true, we would still likely end up seeded either #1 or #2 and enjoy home field all through playoffs. I say this because we would be ahead of UM, and likely would be ahead of at least one of the DSUs since they play each other. I suppose if the loser of that game has only one loss... there's a chance they'd still end up 1 or 2 but that is highly unlikely.

After 2022 I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it highly unlikely!

That's actually a really good point, I forgot about the DSU bias. If memory serves, Cats only had one loss (to FBS Oregon State), NDSU had two losses, an FBS team and SDSU yet they got seeded higher than MSU so we had to travel to Brookings? If I remembered that correctly, Grrrrrrrrr.

Correct. Everyone had the 8-0 Big Sky co-champs Sac State and MSU as the 2 and 3 seeds, but the committee bumped MSU down to #4 and they had a vastly harder semifinal in Brookings instead of being able to host after Sac lost in the quarterfinals. I suppose the good news for MSU this year is that they play all of the teams that are likely to be the contenders for the Big Sky title, so we shouldn't have another 2022 scenario if MSU runs the table. I can absolutely see the committee seeding both NDSU and SDSU ahead of an 11-1 MSU team, but 12-0 should get the job done for home field until Frisco (no pressure!)

[catatac]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

Agree, and I posted a response to this but not seeing it now so probably messed it up. I said that if his prediction comes true, we would still likely end up seeded either #1 or #2 and enjoy home field all through playoffs. I say this because we would be ahead of UM, and likely would be ahead of at least one of the DSUs since they play each other. I suppose if the loser of that game has only one loss... there's a chance they'd still end up 1 or 2 but that is highly unlikely.

After 2022 I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it highly unlikely!

That's actually a really good point, I forgot about the DSU bias. If memory serves, Cats only had one loss (to FBS Oregon State), NDSU had two losses, an FBS team and SDSU yet they got seeded higher than MSU so we had to travel to Brookings? If I remembered that correctly, Grrrrrrrrr.

Correct. Everyone had the 8-0 Big Sky co-champs Sac State and MSU as the 2 and 3 seeds, but the committee bumped MSU down to #4 and they had a vastly harder semifinal in Brookings instead of being able to host after Sac lost in the quarterfinals. I suppose the good news for MSU this year is that they play all of the teams that are likely to be the contenders for the Big Sky title, so we shouldn't have another 2022 scenario if MSU runs the table. I can absolutely see the committee seeding both NDSU and SDSU ahead of an 11-1 MSU team, but 12-0 should get the job done for home field until Frisco (no pressure!)

I predict NDSU and SDSU will both have at least two losses. Just my realistic outlook. For the record, I also think the Cats could end up 10-2 as well. 12-0 is definitely possible though!

[kmax]

JMU in 2016 only lost to North Carolina. NDSU is the only team to win a title without going undefeated against the FCS since EWU in 2010.

Considering 9 out of the 13 champions since 2010 were NDSU I'm not sure this statement is really that statistically relevant.

I think it is since the non NDSU teams - JMU, SHSU and SDSU twice, didn't lose an FCS game. And out of those 9 NDSU titles, 5 or 6 were in undefeated seasons. SDSU is the new NDSU. A rivalry game loss is almost a no matter type of things, but dropping a game to another conference foe doesn't bode well. There are 3, MAYBE 4 teams built to win it all. Idaho, Sac and Davis aren't one of those. Have to beat them.

Ha, yeah I got what you were getting at. I just thought the way you phrased that last sentence was kind of funny given the point was a statistical one.

[rfischer94]

Sounds good expect to drop 1 game

Agree, and I posted a response to this but not seeing it now so probably messed it up. I said that if his prediction comes true, we would still likely end up seeded either #1 or #2 and enjoy home field all through playoffs. I say this because we would be ahead of UM, and likely would be ahead of at least one of the DSUs since they play each other. I suppose if the loser of that game has only one loss... there's a chance they'd still end up 1 or 2 but that is highly unlikely.

After 2022 I'm not sure I'd go so far as to call it highly unlikely!

That's actually a really good point, I forgot about the DSU bias. If memory serves, Cats only had one loss (to FBS Oregon State), NDSU had two losses, an FBS team and SDSU yet they got seeded higher than MSU so we had to travel to Brookings? If I remembered that correctly, Grrrrrrrrr.

As Chris Farley would say, "That is correct.'

[RootinfortheCats]

This is an interesting thread to revisit this morning.

[RootinfortheCats]

Herder takes some heat, but his predictive analysis was pretty good in this case.

[RICO CAT]

One of the backwoods South Dakota media outlets ‘The Road to Frisco’ reported SDU lost to Montana 31-17. Another said Montana State’s only national championship was in 1984. Great work guys !

[MTnative]

One of the backwoods South Dakota media outlets ‘The Road to Frisco’ reported SDU lost to Montana 31-17. Another said Montana State’s only national championship was in 1984. Great work guys !

Chalk that up to MVFC napoleon complex. Or at the very least, crappy journalism.