A little bit of metrics & should frontcourt be used more

[Gidal Kaiser]

I received this e-mail this morning from David Southard, and thought it was an interesting point. I deconstructed it as best I could and answered with my thoughts. Curious to see what the Nation thinks?

From: David Southard
Sent: Thursday, February 09, 2012 12:32 PM
To: gkaiser@dailychronicle.com
Subject: bobcats' pivots
Dear Gidal,
Can you fill me in on something I don't quite understand about MSU men's BB, especially their centers? I'd like to offer some statistics: when the 'Cats don't score, they don't win. Maybe that’s no big revelation but consider this: four of their Big Sky losses were also the four lowest scoring outputs of the conference schedule. On the other side, of their five best defensive efforts, three were losses. Doesn’t this strongly suggest that more offense is needed, even more than defensive improvement? The strategy of opposing coaches seems to be to put pressure on Blount, Moon, Singleton on outside shots because the big men are not scorers anyway.
Scored allowed
86 87 L
W 86 82
W 84 73
W 74 72
W 73 70
W 72 69
W 70 69
66 67 L
58 65 L
52 65 L
49 63 L
If you can agree with that, the following table is the production of Allou, Budinich and Fall, per 32 minutes of playing time, 24 games.
rbds tos blks ppg
Budinich 7,3 1,2 2,3 13,7
Allou 6,8 1,5 0,8 9,3
Fall 7,3 1,8 1,9 8,5
Let’s not get into free throws or three-point shooting. Or fouls! Why does Allou have more than twice as many minutes?
Can you tell me why Budinich plays so little, when his statistics show he’s a much better scorer? Is it just because he isn’t aggressive on defense? Why has Brad Huse avoided playing him?
Giving Budinich more playing wouldn’t mean the Bobcats would challenge Kentucky or Syracuse, but it would give them a few more points and maybe a win or two.
I’d appreciated any insight you could share with me.
David Southard

My response

David,

I agree with your first-portion assessment. To win games, you outscore the opponents (well, yeah.) And you are right – I think Brad doesn’t utilize his frontcourt enough, from Allou and Fall to Budinich to Blake Brumwell. The problem is this team loves the 3-point shot, from the guards to Shawn Reid (a forward) to Budinich (13 of his 27 makes are 3s, 34 of his 60 attempts – over half are 3s).
55 percent of Budinich’s scoring (39 of 71 points non-conf) is from beyond the arc, while it becomes 65 percent (30 of 46) in conference play. If Budinich played 32 minutes a game, I don’t think his ppg would equal your proportions. Reid is the same: 49 percent of his shots are 3s, 46 percent in Big Sky play. And he sinks 28%/30% of them, which is awful for taking so many. The issue is they are tall (both 6-10, or one 6-9, the other 6-10), but not big (muscular, hefty down low). The “muscular” guys are Allou and Fall, but they don’t have major height. Plus a gluttony of athletic guards who all think like alpha dogs, but don’t play like them.
Which is why the post, aside from Tre, gets minimal consideration to build upon. Both Allou and Fall were recruited for their defensive abilities (on paper), which is also why they don’t get major looks in the post.
You also have to factor in experience. Of this entire team, no one had more than one full year of experience in Huse’s system coming into the season. Singleton and Allou came in from JC, as did Fall-Blount-Moon. Budinich is a sophomore, Brumwell is a redshirt freshman, Fall is a JC transfer who’s still learning the game of basketball, Dison is a freshman – none of them are that experienced in the system.
If you really deconstruct this roster, there are three players I never would have recruited, another who doesn’t get any chance to play who’d I’d play all the time, class rank be damned (Brumwell), and one I’d give more PT too with the instruction “Only take a 3 if you are wide open or being guarded by a player five inches shorter than you. Otherwise, mid-range it if you hate playing in the post.” (Budinich). He’s 6-10, he should be playing in the post, IMO. Arguably, two of the best players aren’t part of the team with Stewart and Biglow sitting out. There’s an intriguing thread on BobcatNation.com about Huse’s hits and misses, especially the past 2-3 seasons.

Sincerely,
Gidal Kaiser
Sports Writer
Bozeman Daily Chronicle
406-582-2670
773-655-2506
Twitter: @gidalkaiser

[BLACKnBLUEnGOLD]

Reid shot 38.9% from three last year and has made about a third of his in-conference 3-pointers (14-46), so I think he's just been playing his way out of a slump at the beginning of the season and that the better numbers are a better indicator of his ability as a three-point shooter. I think he should be used more.

I also disagree that Budnich should be shooting more midrange jumpers. In fact, I think that midrange jumpers are inefficient and not something that any coach should really encourage his players to be taking. 3 pointers and layups are more efficient. Coincidentally (or not) Budnich does most of his scoring either from three or under the basket, and he's one of the Bobcats' most efficient scorers. Plus, having a stretch 4 or 5 like Budnich opens up opportunities for backdoor plays that end in layups or dunks. He should play more too.

[MSU01]

Interesting stats - just from observing the games, MSU does not seem to do well in low scoring defensive games...so I would tend to agree that the better offensive players such as Budinich should see more time. I think you hit it on the head about the guard play with "Plus a gluttony of athletic guards who all think like alpha dogs, but don’t play like them".

What I really wonder is if anyone within the MSU Athletic Department is aware of or addressing the unacceptable difference in first-half and second-half conference performance. 30-23 under Huse in December and January and about to be a pathetic 15-31 in February and March conference games - a record which gets even worse when you include MSU's annual blowout loss in their Bracket Buster game to such powerhouse programs as Idaho and San Jose State. No wonder attendance at mens' basketball games has plummeted...why bother following the team when a crushing six or seven game losing streak in February followed by yet another first round conference tournament loss is all but inevitable every year?

[aucat]

I have also wondered why Jeff does not get more playing time given his height and the excellent shooting form that he has. It may be because he does not play aggressive enough on defense and rebounding. He certainly appears to have all the skills, but I do think he needs to play tougher inside.

Having said that about Jeff though, what about the rest of the team? How can the coach come out with a statement about how hot the other team was? Coach, what that really translates to is, "Our defense was lousy." Also, when you get your tail whipped and they shoot lights out, I like to see a coach man up and say, "It is my responsibility to get the team ready to play and I didn't have them ready tonight." 95% of defense is effort. If the players are not putting forth the effort then the coach is responsible. If the coach can no longer get his players to put forth the effort, then I think you need to start questioning if we need to continue down this path.

Frankly, since this season is pretty much shot, could someone take a look at who we have coming back plus the recruits we have signed to provide an outlook for next year???? That would be greatly appreciated.

[Gidal Kaiser]

I have also wondered why Jeff does not get more playing time given his height and the excellent shooting form that he has. It may be because he does not play aggressive enough on defense and rebounding. He certainly appears to have all the skills, but I do think he needs to play tougher inside.

Having said that about Jeff though, what about the rest of the team? How can the coach come out with a statement about how hot the other team was? Coach, what that really translates to is, "Our defense was lousy." Also, when you get your tail whipped and they shoot lights out, I like to see a coach man up and say, "It is my responsibility to get the team ready to play and I didn't have them ready tonight." 95% of defense is effort. If the players are not putting forth the effort then the coach is responsible. If the coach can no longer get his players to put forth the effort, then I think you need to start questioning if we need to continue down this path.

Frankly, since this season is pretty much shot, could someone take a look at who we have coming back plus the recruits we have signed to provide an outlook for next year???? That would be greatly appreciated.

I'll look into it once the season is officially over.