MBB tourney talk

TomCat88 · Post by **TomCat88** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:51 am

I know no one is in the mood to talk tournament, but here's the deal:

There are six teams within 2.5 games of each other from third to eighth.
MSU (6-7) is currently in fifth place by percentage points over EWU.
EWU holds tie-break over MSU.
MSU has games remaining vs. WSU @UM and vs. NAU.
MSU will most likely finish 7-9, in sixth place, and will travel to either ISU or PSU.
There's a realistic chance that MSU could lose all three of its remaining games and still qualify.
MSU will probably hold tie-breaker against both SSU and UNC.

Lets just say the home teams win every game except vs. WSU or UM.
3) ISU plays - EWU (2), SSU at home. I see them going 2-1 and finishing 9-7.
4) PSU plays SSU twice and has UNC and EWU at home. 9-7.
5) MSU (see above) 7-9.
6) EWU plays ISU (2) at PSU and home vs. UNC. 7-9.
7) UNC plays at EWU and PSU and is home vs. WSU. 5-11.
'8) SSU plays PSU twice and at ISU. 5-11.

Unless UNC or SSU come up with some breakthrough road wins. MSU should finish in sixth.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:03 am

Doesn't matter. Making the Big Sky tournament just means one more loss.

TomCat88 · Post by **TomCat88** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:37 am

BelgradeBobcat wrote:Doesn't matter. Making the Big Sky tournament just means one more loss.

Or does it? The NY Giants had a four losing streak down the stretch and were 7-7. Won six straight and the Super Bowl.

John K · Post by **John K** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:40 am

BelgradeBobcat wrote:Doesn't matter. Making the Big Sky tournament just means one more loss.

Wow, and I thought I was pessimistic....but you're probably right. Seriously, making the tourney might be bad in the long run, because I don't think Fields will make a change so long as we keep stumbling along in mediocrity, i.e. barely making the tourney and then losing in the first round. The only way Huse will lose his job is if we start doing even worse, and don't even make the tourney for 2 or 3 consecutive seasons. And with 2 new teams joining the league, and still only 6 teams making the tourney, it will be more difficult beginning next year.

John K · Post by **John K** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:43 am

TomCat88 wrote:
BelgradeBobcat wrote:Doesn't matter. Making the Big Sky tournament just means one more loss.
Or does it? The NY Giants had a four losing streak down the stretch and were 7-7. Won six straight and the Super Bowl.

I'll give you pretty good odds that we won't turn out to be the NY Giants of BSC hoops this season. I know that we pulled off a similar feat back in 2009, but realistically, I just don't see that happening again this year.

MSU01 · Post by **MSU01** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:45 am

It's hard not to be pessimistic when MSU men's basketball has won a game in exactly one of the 13 Big Sky Tournaments since they made the finals against NAU in 1998. I really have trouble seeing MSU being either Weber or UM even if they can somehow make it through the first round, but then again nobody saw MSU beating UM and Weber in '09. All in all it is good to know that they will probably be in there.

jon · Post by **jon** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:59 pm

Bobcats are still in good position to make the tourney because they already have six wins, and have a game against NAU remaining. I am thinking that 7 games should be enough to finish in the top 6. So they should sneak in. Whether that is good long-term or not is another debate for you guys, but I do like their chances of making the tournament, for whatever that is worth.

wbtfg · Post by **wbtfg** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 5:53 pm

Cue Jim Mora

GrizinWashington · Post by **GrizinWashington** » Sun Feb 12, 2012 5:58 pm

wbtfg wrote:Cue Jim Mora

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Wed Feb 15, 2012 11:50 pm

Both UNC and Sac lost tonight as well so MSU is still in the driver's seat to back into that last conference tourney slot. I'm guessing Sac is about out of it so it's between the Bobcats and Bears.

Cat Grad · Post by **Cat Grad** » Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:23 am

Why bother? We already know from other threads what will happen when we have to get physical with any other team--even in the Big Sky.

Potomac Griz · Post by **Potomac Griz** » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:21 am

The Cats are a pretty safe bet as the 6th team in, hopefully playing either ISU or PSU here in Missoula.

UNC has @PSU and Weber at home. Unless the refs pull something out of their ass @UNC, or Lillard and Bamforth come down with Ebola, I don't see them beating Weber. They'll probably lose @PSU too. You guys have @UM and NAU at home. NAU is horrible... They take it to a whole new level of horrible on the road too. No way you guys lose to them in Bozeman.

Even if somehow you did lose to NAU and lost to the Griz in Missoula, UNC would have to win @PSU and beat Weber at home. Having the same record as the Cats won't be good enough, since I think you guys would have the tiebreaker on them in most plausible situations (ISU and PSU being 3 and 4, or 4 and 3). If EWU jumps ISU though, UNC would have the tiebreaker.

The Cats could end up as the 5 seed if EWU has an epic meltdown. They'd have to lose all 3 games though putting them at 6-10 since they have the tiebreaker on the Cats. They have @ISU @PSU and ISU at home. Or if you beat the Griz & NAU, they'd have to drop 2.

John K · Post by **John K** » Thu Feb 16, 2012 1:30 am

Potomac Griz wrote:The Cats are a pretty safe bet as the 6th team in, hopefully playing either ISU or PSU here in Missoula.

UNC has @PSU and Weber at home. Unless the refs pull something out of their ass @UNC, or Lillard and Bamforth come down with Ebola, I don't see them beating Weber. They'll probably lose @PSU too. You guys have @UM and NAU at home. NAU is horrible... They take it to a whole new level of horrible on the road too. No way you guys lose to them in Bozeman.

Even if somehow you did lose to NAU and lost to the Griz in Missoula, UNC would have to win @PSU and beat Weber at home. Having the same record as the Cats won't be good enough, since I think you guys would have the tiebreaker on them in most plausible situations (ISU and PSU being 3 and 4, or 4 and 3). If EWU jumps ISU though, UNC would have the tiebreaker.

The Cats could end up as the 5 seed if EWU has an epic meltdown. They'd have to lose all 3 games though putting them at 6-10 since they have the tiebreaker on the Cats. They have @ISU @PSU and ISU at home. Or if you beat the Griz & NAU, they'd have to drop 2.

The Cats would not play anyone in Missoula in the first round, since the no. 3 and no. 4 seeds host the two first round games, not the regular season champ.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:54 am

Potomac Griz wrote: NAU is horrible... They take it to a whole new level of horrible on the road too. No way you guys lose to them in Bozeman.

Oh there's a way.

Potomac Griz · Post by **Potomac Griz** » Thu Feb 16, 2012 7:12 pm

John K wrote:The Cats would not play anyone in Missoula in the first round, since the no. 3 and no. 4 seeds host the two first round games, not the regular season champ.

Of course. Long day + late at night made me a bit braindead on that I guess. Well, hopefully you'll surprise some team on the road and make it to Missoula for the 2nd round

BelgradeBobcat wrote:
Potomac Griz wrote: NAU is horrible... They take it to a whole new level of horrible on the road too. No way you guys lose to them in Bozeman.
Oh there's a way.

Oh I know, it's basketball...never know what is going to happen. But still, you have to like your chances to beat NAU in Bozeman. NAU has won 1 game on the road this year it looks like, and it was against AZ State.

NAU's RPI is currently 333 out of 344 teams. They do play UC Davis (343) soon, so that should be a battle of the titans...

Here are their road games on the year. In their last road game they got blown out by Sac 77-43.

@SF (142) - 19 point loss
@LMU (90) - 20 point loss
@AZ (68) - 14 point loss
@ASU (229) - 1 point win?!?! WTF
@SHSU (276) - 24 point loss
@UNCO (268) - 16 point loss
@PSU (192) - 20 point loss
@EWU (209) - 17 point loss
@Weber (86) - 14 point loss
@ISU (250) - 16 point loss
@SAC (310) - 34 point loss
@Montana (98) - Griz are a 32 point favorite according to realtimerpi.com
@MSU (284) - MSU is a 13 point favorite according to realtimerpi.com

I'd be very very surprised if you guys lose to NAU.

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