MSU Womens B-Ball Final 5 Games

[SACCAT]

OK... Let's move on from the past week, and look ahead at what the Women's team has for their remaining 5 games.

5 Left
- At PSU
- At SAC State
-Home Idaho
-Home EWU
- At Weber

As of Today, Montana State Women are in 4th Place. They finish playing 3 road games VS the last 3 teams in the Big Sky, and 2 Home Games VS #1 EWU and #6 Idaho...

Cats will be favored in at least 3 of those games (4 depending on how they do on Road this weekend), and are 3 games ahead of #7 seed Idaho State. I don't want to say a top 6 seed is a lock, but they need probably 2 wins our of 5 to secure it. They schedule actually lines up really well for the Women, as they just got through playing the top 3 teams over the last 5 games.

Cats have proven that they can beat any team on any day... BUT have struggled finding scoring VS the top teams over the past month, and seem to look tired at times with this long season (They have played 14 games already on the road, compared to 11 for UM... 3 extra road games is a LOT).

My guess is Cats win at least 3 of their last 5 games, and find themselves in the 4th or 5th seed... You tell me that, after all the injuries this team has faced, they would finish 4th in Conference I wouldn't have believed you.

[lutecat]

Honestly I'm happy with this year. Good experience by some young girls. They are scrapping. Bin is coaching her hind end off.

[CatRowdy]

OK... Let's move on from the past week, and look ahead at what the Women's team has for their remaining 5 games.

5 Left
- At PSU
- At SAC State
-Home Idaho
-Home EWU
- At Weber

As of Today, Montana State Women are in 4th Place. They finish playing 3 road games VS the last 3 teams in the Big Sky, and 2 Home Games VS #1 EWU and #6 Idaho...

Cats will be favored in at least 3 of those games (4 depending on how they do on Road this weekend), and are 3 games ahead of #7 seed Idaho State. I don't want to say a top 6 seed is a lock, but they need probably 2 wins our of 5 to secure it. They schedule actually lines up really well for the Women, as they just got through playing the top 3 teams over the last 5 games.

Cats have proven that they can beat any team on any day... BUT have struggled finding scoring VS the top teams over the past month, and seem to look tired at times with this long season (They have played 14 games already on the road, compared to 11 for UM... 3 extra road games is a LOT).

My guess is Cats win at least 3 of their last 5 games, and find themselves in the 4th or 5th seed... You tell me that, after all the injuries this team has faced, they would finish 4th in Conference I wouldn't have believed you.

Couldn't agree more! Cats can beat any team on the right day. Our final five games could be a sweep which would have the Cats finish 13-5. That finish would probably put them in 3rd place in the standing. The worst I predict we finish is 11-7 which I can't see how it wouldn't put us any worse than 5th. Obviously there are five games to play so we will see how it shakes out but for this team to finish that high with all the challenges they have faced, Says a lot of the the Coaches and these players staying with a program, a goal and a dream.

Entering the tournament in the 3-6 seeding mean they will play Monday the 11th, winners then play the 12th and those winners play the 13th in the Championship game. It will be exciting to see how they fare, but I'm not counting this team out at all. They have the skill and capability now it seems to depend on the day.

[MSU01]

The tournament should be pretty wide open this year, all you really need to do is make sure you finish in the Top 6 to get the first round bye and then everyone's on a pretty level footing from there. I think this is the year NAU finally wins it, but MSU and a few other teams certainly have a chance. Can MSU put the ball in the hoop consistently enough to win 3 games in a row?

[CatRowdy]

The tournament should be pretty wide open this year, all you really need to do is make sure you finish in the Top 6 to get the first round bye and then everyone's on a pretty level footing from there. I think this is the year NAU finally wins it, but MSU and a few other teams certainly have a chance. Can MSU put the ball in the hoop consistently enough to win 3 games in a row?

Agree the tournament is pretty wide open this year. One of the few advantages is if you secure a 1 or 2 seed, you play Sunday, get a day off and then play Tuesday and Wednesday. Winning three in a row makes it a bit more of a challenge.

[MSU01]

The tournament should be pretty wide open this year, all you really need to do is make sure you finish in the Top 6 to get the first round bye and then everyone's on a pretty level footing from there. I think this is the year NAU finally wins it, but MSU and a few other teams certainly have a chance. Can MSU put the ball in the hoop consistently enough to win 3 games in a row?

Agree the tournament is pretty wide open this year. One of the few advantages is if you secure a 1 or 2 seed, you play Sunday, get a day off and then play Tuesday and Wednesday. Winning three in a row makes it a bit more of a challenge.

Good point, the Big Sky did a really good job with their new tournament format in rewarding the top seeds with that extra rest day.

[MSU01]

Well, not a good start to the stretch run. The good news is it shouldn't hurt too much in terms of tournament seeding.

[CatRowdy]

Well, not a good start to the stretch run. The good news is it shouldn't hurt too much in terms of tournament seeding.

No, not a good start. Our game after halftime doesn't seem to get started too quickly in the 3rd.
And the game Sac St gave the gris tonight at home means we had better be executing on all cylinders Saturday.
Only nine players... seems we are plagued with continued issues.

[BelgradeBobcat]

Well, not a good start to the stretch run. The good news is it shouldn't hurt too much in terms of tournament seeding.

No, not a good start. Our game after halftime doesn't seem to get started too quickly in the 3rd.
And the game Sac St gave the gris tonight at home means we had better be executing on all cylinders Saturday.
Only nine players... seems we are plagued with continued issues.

Who were we missing? I thought the loss in Missoula was bad. This is just devastating. PSU hadn't won in a couple of months.

[Helcat72]

We are long and tall, but we have no shooters...from anywhere from the 3 point line to the paint. Portland just stayed in the zone and we played keep away for 30 seconds. If they got a pass into the lane about 10 feet away...they didn't even try to turn and shoot...they just passed it out and continued the perimeter keep away. Izzy had 3-3 pointers early, but disappeared after that. Mara is deadly from 10-12 feet, but I only remember her shooting one...and making it!

[rivercat]

We are long and tall, but we have no shooters...from anywhere from the 3 point line to the paint. Portland just stayed in the zone and we played keep away for 30 seconds. If they got a pass into the lane about 10 feet away...they didn't even try to turn and shoot...they just passed it out and continued the perimeter keep away. Izzy had 3-3 pointers early, but disappeared after that. Mara is deadly from 10-12 feet, but I only remember her shooting one...and making it!

I'm largely in agreement. This team has no real 3 pt threat which allows defenses to sag and clog the key. Being young and inexperienced exacerbates the lack of shooting confidence when things start to go downhill.

[lutecat]

It didn't help that Natalie had foul trouble in the 2nd half. Everything went way out of rhythm with her out. She may not have a super high shooting % but she makes the offense go. And man is she fun to watch running around. I assume we weren't going to start a freshman at point originally. Who was slated to be the starter?

[arvcat2]

Well, not a good start to the stretch run. The good news is it shouldn't hurt too much in terms of tournament seeding.

No, not a good start. Our game after halftime doesn't seem to get started too quickly in the 3rd.
And the game Sac St gave the gris tonight at home means we had better be executing on all cylinders Saturday.
Only nine players... seems we are plagued with continued issues.

Who were we missing? I thought the loss in Missoula was bad. This is just devastating. PSU hadn't won in a couple of months.

Ella Johnson did not play. She got injured in Missoula sometime in the 1st half and hasn't played since.

[BelgradeBobcat]

Well, not a good start to the stretch run. The good news is it shouldn't hurt too much in terms of tournament seeding.

No, not a good start. Our game after halftime doesn't seem to get started too quickly in the 3rd.
And the game Sac St gave the gris tonight at home means we had better be executing on all cylinders Saturday.
Only nine players... seems we are plagued with continued issues.

Who were we missing? I thought the loss in Missoula was bad. This is just devastating. PSU hadn't won in a couple of months.

Ella Johnson did not play. She got injured in Missoula sometime in the 1st half and hasn't played since.

If she doesn't come back soon that's gonna make the stretch run pretty tough. This team has no margin for injuries.

[aucat]

We are long and tall, but we have no shooters...from anywhere from the 3 point line to the paint. Portland just stayed in the zone and we played keep away for 30 seconds. If they got a pass into the lane about 10 feet away...they didn't even try to turn and shoot...they just passed it out and continued the perimeter keep away. Izzy had 3-3 pointers early, but disappeared after that. Mara is deadly from 10-12 feet, but I only remember her shooting one...and making it!

I'm largely in agreement. This team has no real 3 pt threat which allows defenses to sag and clog the key. Being young and inexperienced exacerbates the lack of shooting confidence when things start to go downhill.

But are we really that “young and inexperienced?” Three of our starters are seniors—Taylor, KJ, and Madison. Dyksta now has almost two seasons under her belt. The bottom line is, our recruiting has slipped. Look at the shooters UM has brought in and they were on full display in Missoula. If you really want to see a “young and inexperienced “ team (which is another way of saying recruiting has slipped) wait until next year. Who is going to provide the offensive firepower beyond Dykstra and Deden? I don’t care how hard you play defense you HAVE to have shooters who can score.

[84CatGrad]

It didn't help that Natalie had foul trouble in the 2nd half. Everything went way out of rhythm with her out. She may not have a super high shooting % but she makes the offense go. And man is she fun to watch running around. I assume we weren't going to start a freshman at point originally. Who was slated to be the starter?

Dylan Philip.

[TomCat88]

We are long and tall, but we have no shooters...from anywhere from the 3 point line to the paint. Portland just stayed in the zone and we played keep away for 30 seconds. If they got a pass into the lane about 10 feet away...they didn't even try to turn and shoot...they just passed it out and continued the perimeter keep away. Izzy had 3-3 pointers early, but disappeared after that. Mara is deadly from 10-12 feet, but I only remember her shooting one...and making it!

I'm largely in agreement. This team has no real 3 pt threat which allows defenses to sag and clog the key. Being young and inexperienced exacerbates the lack of shooting confidence when things start to go downhill.

Three point shooting stats are tough to evaluate. MSU as a team has been poor the past three years (below 30%). Teams need individual players that it can count as 3-point shooters, so I don’t put a lot of stock in team stats. A couple players in the high 30s or better is key imo. At least have one player on the court that your opponent has to account for. Even if they don’t shoot, they open up things for other players just with their presence. The players 33% or lower shouldn’t be taking any shots until garbage time or at the shot clock or quarter buzzer in desperation.

MSU has zero players that I’d run a play for to shoot a three. However, I’d do it anyway just to keep a defense honest.

MSU could use a player like World B. Free or Vinny “The Microwave” Johnson. but seriously.

[lutecat]

We are long and tall, but we have no shooters...from anywhere from the 3 point line to the paint. Portland just stayed in the zone and we played keep away for 30 seconds. If they got a pass into the lane about 10 feet away...they didn't even try to turn and shoot...they just passed it out and continued the perimeter keep away. Izzy had 3-3 pointers early, but disappeared after that. Mara is deadly from 10-12 feet, but I only remember her shooting one...and making it!

I'm largely in agreement. This team has no real 3 pt threat which allows defenses to sag and clog the key. Being young and inexperienced exacerbates the lack of shooting confidence when things start to go downhill.

But are we really that “young and inexperienced?” Three of our starters are seniors—Taylor, KJ, and Madison. Dyksta now has almost two seasons under her belt. The bottom line is, our recruiting has slipped. Look at the shooters UM has brought in and they were on full display in Missoula. If you really want to see a “young and inexperienced “ team (which is another way of saying recruiting has slipped) wait until next year. Who is going to provide the offensive firepower beyond Dykstra and Deden? I don’t care how hard you play defense you HAVE to have shooters who can score.

Disagree. Look how many of our rotation players are freshman. We may have 3 seniors that were starters. But our sophomores were supposed to be studs weren't they, and they're all injured.

[arvcat2]

We are long and tall, but we have no shooters...from anywhere from the 3 point line to the paint. Portland just stayed in the zone and we played keep away for 30 seconds. If they got a pass into the lane about 10 feet away...they didn't even try to turn and shoot...they just passed it out and continued the perimeter keep away. Izzy had 3-3 pointers early, but disappeared after that. Mara is deadly from 10-12 feet, but I only remember her shooting one...and making it!

I'm largely in agreement. This team has no real 3 pt threat which allows defenses to sag and clog the key. Being young and inexperienced exacerbates the lack of shooting confidence when things start to go downhill.

But are we really that “young and inexperienced?” Three of our starters are seniors—Taylor, KJ, and Madison. Dyksta now has almost two seasons under her belt. The bottom line is, our recruiting has slipped. Look at the shooters UM has brought in and they were on full display in Missoula. If you really want to see a “young and inexperienced “ team (which is another way of saying recruiting has slipped) wait until next year. Who is going to provide the offensive firepower beyond Dykstra and Deden? I don’t care how hard you play defense you HAVE to have shooters who can score.

I mostly agree with you about what good is a defense if you don’t have shooters on the offense side of things. Regarding next season, again, I don’t think we know yet if Limardo or Janssen are returning for their covid year. Regardless, their shooting has always been streaky and seems to have fallen off this season. So yes, this team sorely needs some outside shooters.

As to your comment about the recruiting slipping off, I thought I’d look at the last six years of the recruiting classes and grade them IMHO:

2019-2020
Grade A: Bad Bear, MadJackHall, Stumne, White. No brainer, this class produced 3 very good players.
2020-2021
Grade B: Beattie, Deden, Janssen, Limardo, Ranson, Stensgard. For this class, 2 transferred out, one “retired”, leaving Deden, Janssen & Limardo still on today’s roster.
2021-2022
Grade D: Ardern, Hein, Hughes. If Hein cannot make a come back from her ongoing injury, this class gets an F as the other two are long gone.
2022-2023
Grade C: (tentative) Beasley, Dykstra, Olson, Philip. Dykstra is the gem of this class. Not sure if Olson will ever play again with her injury, Philip is a to be determined, & we all know the Beasley story.
2023-2024
Grade Incomplete: Berry, Brumfield, Boulanger, Bunyan, Egan, Johnson, Picton. Bunyan, Johnson, & Picton are looking good. The remaining players in this class, not so much at this point of their first year. I’d give this class a premature C but with alot of upside potential.
2024-2025
Grade Incomplete: Chirrick, Erickson, Harris. Time will tell, but Chirrick & Harris could be exceptional.

In conclusion, I would mostly agree with you that recruiting has slipped, although the jury is certainly still out on the current freshman. The 2021-2022 & 2022-2023 classes has only produced one player (still on the roster) who could definitely start on any Big Sky team.

[nevadacat]

Observations from Sac State, end of first half.
-We are shooting better from 20 feet than 2 feet.
-Sac is overplaying on passes at the top and wing, but nobody is back cutting.
-Leaving too many open 3s.
-We are in this on pure hustle.
-The Sac State announcer is very good.