The Bobcat Nation

With ISU, NAU, and PSU all losing today I believe that clinches the #5 seed for MSU in the Tournament. They can finish at worst tied with any of these three after Monday's games and MSU holds a tiebreaker advantage over all 3.

MSU swept ISU
MSU split with PSU but has a win over #1 EWU
MSU split with NAU - both have wins over EWU but MSU swept ISU while NAU split

If Weber, UNC, and UM all win Monday then UM would be the #4 seed and we'd have Cat/Griz Part 3 with the winner advancing to most likely play EWU in the semis.

Disappointing outcome for our game today, but finishing 5th in conference is no shame at all under the circumstances.

BLACKnBLUEnGOLD wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 02, 2024 10:15 pm

Disappointing outcome for our game today, but finishing 5th in conference is no shame at all under the circumstances.

A certain former MSU head coach also finished 5th in the conference in his first two seasons.

MSU01 wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:02 pm

With ISU, NAU, and PSU all losing today I believe that clinches the #5 seed for MSU in the Tournament. They can finish at worst tied with any of these three after Monday's games and MSU holds a tiebreaker advantage over all 3.

MSU swept ISU
MSU split with PSU but has a win over #1 EWU
MSU split with NAU - both have wins over EWU but MSU swept ISU while NAU split

If Weber, UNC, and UM all win Monday then UM would be the #4 seed and we'd have Cat/Griz Part 3 with the winner advancing to most likely play EWU in the semis.

Yes please. Beat them when it matters, and I love the way this Cat team is fighting right now.

I personally don’t think we match up with the gris basketball team well at all. Their bigs are a real problem for this team. Is there a way that we play someone else in the first game?

saintcat40 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:49 pm

I personally don’t think we match up well with the gris basketball team well at all. Their bigs are a real problem for this team. Is there a way that we play someone else in the first game?

Yes, beat Weber tomorrow which would make them or UNC the #4 seed assuming UM can beat Idaho State.

saintcat40 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:49 pm

I personally don’t think we match up with the gris basketball team well at all. Their bigs are a real problem for this team. Is there a way that we play someone else in the first game?

I think if we beat Weber tomorrow, we would rematch them if gris and UNC win.

MSU01 wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:02 pm

With ISU, NAU, and PSU all losing today I believe that clinches the #5 seed for MSU in the Tournament. They can finish at worst tied with any of these three after Monday's games and MSU holds a tiebreaker advantage over all 3.

MSU swept ISU
MSU split with PSU but has a win over #1 EWU
MSU split with NAU - both have wins over EWU but MSU swept ISU while NAU split

If Weber, UNC, and UM all win Monday then UM would be the #4 seed and we'd have Cat/Griz Part 3 with the winner advancing to most likely play EWU in the semis.

It is a tad more complicated than this because there can be three-way ties and a four-way tie but yes in any of 9 different scenarios Monday night, the Cats are the #5 seed. 1) We win; nothing matters, we have best record; 2) All four lose (Cats, ISU, PSU, NAU), we have better record; 3),4),5) Any two-way ties, we are #5 per your info (although tie with NAU actually goes through 4 tiebreakers before comparing NAU and MSU records vs ISU and PSU); 6),7) Three way ties with MSU/ISU/PSU OR MSU/ISU/NAU; Cats wins the head to heads; 8 ) Three-way tie with MSU/PSU/NAU goes through more tie-breakers since the head-to-head is 2-2 for all three teams. Next tie-breaker looks at record vs Eastern - both NAU and MSU are 1-1 and PSU is 0-2 so PSU is eliminated from #5 seed; then it goes down the tiebreakers through UM/WSU; then UNC (Since NAU will have beaten them) and down to PSU/ISU where MSU comes out on top. Finally 9) Four-way tie (MSU loses and PSU/NAU/ISU all win), MSU wins the head-to-head with a 4-2 record vs. 3-3 for ISU/NAU and 2-4 for PSU.

So the bottom line, yes MSU has clinched the #5 seed. But a win would be nice. And yes, we beat Weber and UNC is #2 seed (beat Gris twice); Gris #3 and we play the #4 seed Weber in the first game. Assumes UNC and Gris both win. If UNC loses to NAU and Cats beat Weber, then Gris #2 seed and Weber #3 seed and we play UNC as the #4 seed. Best that I can see. Yes, I would rather play UNC or Weber than Gris in the first game.

If Gris/Weber/UNC all win Monday, then head-to-head is UNC 2-2; Weber 3-1; UM - 1-3; and Weber is #2; but then to determine #3 and #4 goes back to head-head and UNC gets #3 seed and UM #4. In that scenario, we play Gris which I agree is not a good match up. So there is nothing we can do to get the #6 seed in this scenario so we play UNC. Kinda way the ball bounces. Get the higher seed but have a tougher first game. Bummer. Welcome to March.

Yeah, I looked at all the potential three and four way ties but they all came down to MSU at #5 for the same reasons they win all the individual tiebreakers. MSU having those two bad home losses against Sac and Idaho actually helps them when it comes to seeding tiebreakers. I'll have my eye on the UNC @ NAU game tonight as I agree that UNC would be the most desirable matchup for MSU in the quarterfinal game.