The Bobcat Nation

I consider myself a population nut, so I thought I'd share with you my findings of the population figures in Montana.

The census is done on every decade ending in 0 (1980, 1990, 2000, etc). The towns in eastern Montana are slowly dying while the western towns are doing much better. Obviously this is because of the scenery. During the middle years of each decade the figures are approximate, yet fairly accurate

Using the top 7 populated areas in Montana, 5 of them are growing while the remaining two are declining.

As of 2003, these are the figures for those towns and the difference from the actual census in 2000 (in order of size):
Billings 95,220 (+5,373)
Missoula 60,722 (+3,669)
Great Falls 56,155 (-535)
Butte* 32,519 (-1373)
Bozeman 30,753 (+3,244)
Helena 26,718 (+938)
Kalispell 16,391 (+2,168)

While Billings has grown the most, Kalispell and Bozeman have shown the greatest percentage. If you want to know what the next census might be for your city, just take the 2003 total and add the difference in twice. Billings should be around 105,966. Bozeman should be around 37,241 and so on.

If you want, we can discuss why these figures are occuring and what the future might hold.


* Figures are included as a county.

I think I share your passion for these kinds of figures -- that are interesting things.

In addition to the sometimes bleak landscape in the east, isn't another factor the continual decline in the number of people it takes to farm/ranch an acre of land? I think the population decline trend in the predominately ag communities has been going on for a long time, and will probably continue. It's amazing how many little farms now roll up into one big farm operated by one family and a couple big tractors. The fewer farmers in an area has a trickle down effect on all other businesses ... except new implement dealers, who probably do okay with more large operators as opposed to a bunch of small used equipment-buying outfits.

Do you happen to have those figures on a county by county basis? Around Bozeman, it isn't the growth within Bozeman that amazes me as much as the growth in Belgrade and in the subdivisions popping up in the middle of pastures outside of any town. How long before Bozeman and Belgrade are one continuous city?

By 2010, there will hardly be a 1/4 mile of darkness between Hamilton and Whitefish.

Geography certainly has something to do with the rate of growth in the western part of the state (from a recreation to views). However, job opportunity is also a factor. Not sure what comes first, the beauty of the locale or the jobs. Perhaps a bit of both.

It will be interesting to see if the rise in commodity prices (CRB Index) results in a slowing rate of decline of ag community populations.

The figures for the counties are:
Yellowstone 134,717 (+5,465)
Missoula 99,018 (+3,216)
Cascade 75,637 (-508)
Silver Bow 33,093 (-1513)
Gallatin 75,637 (+7,806)
Lewis and Clark 57,972 (+2,256)
Flathead 81,217 (+6,746)

These figures clearly show that the Flathead and Gallatin valley's are growing the fastest. In Billings, they are growing from within (or at least busy annexing) while the others are spreading out a little more. Bozeman and Belgrade will be one, but I think it's still quite a few years away. There is still much land between the two. As will Billings and Laurel.

Do Ravalli and Lake counties...the percentages are astounding.

Bleedinbluengold wrote:Do Ravalli and Lake counties...the percentages are astounding.

Lake 27,919 (+1,412)
Ravalli 39,376 (+3,306)

Okay, can we now get all of that same info, but broken out by gender, age, and whether they are left or right-handed? Some color-coded graphs would be nice as well. Chop-chop!

(Seriously, thanks for pulling all of this research -- good stuff!)

Bay Area Cat wrote:Okay, can we now get all of that same info, but broken out by gender, age, and whether they are left or right-handed? Some color-coded graphs would be nice as well. Chop-chop!

(Seriously, thanks for pulling all of this research -- good stuff!)

This could be a Snickers commercial.

Not going anywhere for a while.

I can't see the future being much better for the eastern side of the state. Other than the Billings area (which is going gang busters), pretty much every town is losing population.

Below is my synopsis of the bigger cities.

Billings is the closest thing Montana has to a big city. They have a huge medical corridor, 3 oil refineries, and a progressive attitude. Studies have shown that it has a recession resistant economy with one of the largest geographically trade market areas in the United States. The airport is the largest in Montana. Studies have also shown (Western Business News) that percentage of money spent on restaurants is about the same as Las Vegas, twice as much as Missoula and Great Falls. I don't see the population surge in Billings slowing down anytime soon based on the business climate and the future developments (Transtech Center, Broso Valley Park, etc).

Bozeman is becoming a high tech place to work. Many technology based companies are in the Gallitan valley and more are sure to come. It also has Montana State University which is growing and at or near record enrollements. Like most of the cities in western Montana, it has an abundance of outdoor activities. A big chunk of it's economy is based on tourism and the higher gas prices could hurt a place like Bozeman as travelers may not travel far. However, I think the business climate in Bozeman is 2nd only to Billings and will stay strong. I think it will continue to grow at a high pace. The airport has the 2nd most passengers in Montana.

Missoula grew like crazy in the 90's increasing their population by about 10,000+. Their population has slowed down but it's still a booming place. Surrounding communities such as Hamilton and Lolo are also booming which helps the businesses in Missoula a ton. As bleedingbluengold pointed out, the huge area between Hamilton and Whitefish is one that many, many people are moving to. They also have the University of Montana, like Bozeman, it's bursting with high enrollment rates. The business climate here is 100 times better than it was 20 years ago and the Missoula area will continue to grow but I don't see the growth of the 90's, which was phenomenal. Serious changes need to be made to their main driving arteries in order to help the increased growth.

Butte is shrinking more than any other city in Montana. I've busted my brain trying to figure out why. The truth is, I don't really know that much about Butte other than their incredible history. I do know that much of their economy is based on mining and that is a very volatile industry.

Kalispell is growing so fast that I think it's out of control. When I think of Kalispell the first thing to comes to mind is urban sprawl. It's amazing to think there is only 16,000 in city limits but over 81,000 in the county. Eventually, due to outrageous home prices , I see the population boom slowing down. This is a city that many outsiders come in and build a summer home. This helps the economy in the short run, but not long term. The city will grow as it annexes the large surrounding growth but I think the county will slow some. The big business here is tourism and million dollar homes.

Great Falls is home to the only air base in Montana. This has been their main economic source since....forever. With the government defense downsizing they have taken a huge hit. Unfortunately, they don't have another industry fueling the charge. Unless an unforeseen industry makes their home here, I don't see them changing the population decrease from the last 10 years or so. However, they do have a large hospital in Benefis which helps.

Helena is the capital and where I live. Obviously they rely heavily on state money and tourism. The business climate here is much better than in the past, but they still seem to have that small town mentality. Growth is not met with open arms. However, there is lots of jobs (due to the state government) and it's beautiful here. I see Helena continuing to grow at their present pace for some time.

As is the case with all the western cities, their beauty will attract people to move there. Billings will attract with it's sheer size and culteral events.

Interesting tidbit from the local Chamber of Commerce "poop sheet" on the Flathead Valley the other day:

Average days/year with 30% or less cloud cover: 71
Average days/year with 80% or more cloud cover: 214

An older acquaintance of mine once pointed out to me that if those 2 numbers were reversed, the Whitefish, Kalispell, Columbia Falls area would look a lot more like Aspen & Vail than anything resembling Montana... I now get what he was saying.

This area, while still very "young" in its growth cycle, has EVERYTHING an outdoor enthusiast could want. Glacier Park, Flathead National Forest, Flathead Lake, TONS of other smaller lakes, rivers, Big Mountain Ski Resort, 11 championship golf courses within 65 miles of Kali, hunting, fishing, snowmobiling, yada, yada, yada...

The biggest drawback is, however & unfortunately, the fact that we go through LONG periods of cloudy, dreary weather. I never thought of myself as being all that affected by sunshine (or a lack thereof) but let me tell you, after 20 days without seeing the sun (yes, it really does happen here), I'm ready to kill anything that looks at me funny. I've determined that Kalispell is a Blackfeet word meaning "the Valley of Darkness".

Most "experts" predict that Flathead County will surpass 100,000 by 2020 (I believe it will be closer to 2015, but I'm no expert) but I KNOW that we'd already be over that figure if you reversed the cloud cover data shown above. The Targets, Lowes, Home Depots etc. of the world do their homework pretty well. They're ALL landing here now and that says to me that our growth will not subside anytime soon. Meat, you're right when you say it's out of control; there is far too much bickering amongst cities & the county; everyone is so protective of their own "turf" that they are missing opportunities to really establish a solid growth plan. That's why you get the "sprawl" sensation; there's very little rhyme or reason to the growth that has taken place thus far; I'm hopeful that the politicians & beauracrats remove their heads from their arses soon...

The fast growing cities/counties in Montana do not know how to handle and plan for future growth. There is little coordination between the city and the county planning departments. This is what causes urban sprawl. When I lived in Northern Virginia after college, I learned that the county had full control over the planned growth within the county. This included the growth within the cities. The county was also in charge of enforcing building codes. Most counties in Montana do not have a Building Department to enforce building codes. Looking back at that system and seeing the turf battles going on in Montana, I think this is a system that should be looked into

[quote="Cat-theotherwhitemeat"]
Great Falls is home to the only air base in Montana. This has been their main economic source since....forever. With the government defense downsizing they have taken a huge hit. Unfortunately, they don't have another industry fueling the charge. Unless an unforeseen industry makes their home here, I don't see them changing the population decrease from the last 10 years or so. However, they do have a large hospital in Benefis which helps.
[quote]

CTOWM- This is a very interesting topic & I have had the pleasure to sit in only many discussions about this topic. What caught my eye was the Great Falls piece that you mentioned. I know that Great Falls is REALLY feeling the military downsize pinch. The city has hired the former economic developer out of Fargo. Great Falls is also in the process of trying to build a new power plant (nothing is for sure). Great Falls is ahead of the game because they know they need help and are looking under every rock for it. You can't say the same has happened in other towns across Montana.

Billings has the unique distinction of being the largest city in two states Or at least I've heard it declared that Billings is the largest city in Wyoming.

Countywide zoning and building permits-that's an interesting topic. Propose that in most counties and many will be looking for a good rope and a tall tree-even (and maybe especially) Gallatin County. The east may as well be in a different universe when it comes to landuse planning.

Montana's econonmy is really diverse and disjointed-which really makes it fun come legislature time. Most of the state is losing population and struggling while a few places are really booming. It's hard to make laws that work well for both types of situations. Thus often it's a real mess.

You know what's really sliding under the radar? Fergus County We all need to get together and pool our resources P.D.Q. and buy the whole county--and maybe we'd have a little left over to pick up Meagher also I'm sure the Rankins would let it go without much of bid

COTWM- Butte isn’t growing because well it is Butte. You never hear people say, “I would love to live in Butte”. I have found that the only Montanans that like Butte are those from Butte. A lot of the population increases in most of the cities in Montana are people moving from Eastern Montana, and they all want to go to the big four Billings, Missoula, Bozeman and Helena. Butte has a terrible reputation of being a rowdy and polluted town, not the ideal place for those relocating.

There's no doubt, Butte needs to make some radical changes. They need to use their "fighting" spirit on the economic side of things. I agree, they do have the tough image that isn't a big attraction for those with families.

Speaking of images. One lady I work with is sending her daughter to MSU-Billings. She, as many others on the western side of the state, said she's always thought of Billings as dirty and ugly. That is, until she went over there for a lengthy visit. She came back and raved about how beautiful and clean it was and how the western Montana image of Billings is way off.

Even the south side of Billings is doing well...
http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.ph ... h-side.inc

Also from today's Gazette....
http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.ph ... wntown.inc

A Butte story: I think this sums it up well.

Butte native grows up get college degree, gets job in Montana in the 70K area. Need to travel around the state a bit. Helena, Bozeman, Billings. Has a kid and wife. Can live any place in the state. Living in Billings. New house on the west end. I laugh becouse Billings does get a bost from this person living in Billings spending money but, Butte could really really use more people making 70K raising a family.

Cat the Great White Meat: Agree with your assessment of Billings; on the other hand, whenever I go back to Butte, I see a link to our state's past and what we once were Then, I get around the scars from 100 years of mining (actually probably only 40-50 of open pit), look straight south at the Highlands and see the greatest ski resort in the world waiting to be opened up The infrastructure of the town could accomodate enough direct flights into the town and I for one think a chair from the flats up there would be way too cool...the old warehouses in that town could be much better than Park City (Utah ) and we're going to need a place to brew beer when that malting plant in great falls comes online