The Bobcat Nation

I follow the Prez polls pretty close and this past week noticed a scary trend. Fox, and others, are reporting Bush has this big lead among likely voters based on the 'latest' Gallup Poll at 52-45. That particular poll covered the dates Sept. 3-5, (RNC bounce) yet there is no mention of those dates and the reporters stress that Bush is pulling away and Kerry is in trouble. That Gallup Poll surveyed just over 1,000 and has a +/- of 4%.

I've yet to see the media use the poll done by Rassmussen Report (perhaps it doesn't have the name recognition, but I don't think that's why). The RR had Bush up by as much as 5 points after the Rep. Conv., but now shows him up by just 1.4. The RR is updated daily (even on weekends) and covers the previous three days, so the Sept. 11 poll was for Sept. 8-10. The RR samples 3,000 likely voters and has a +/- of 2%.

The media, as of last night, was still referencing the Gallup Poll, which is five days older. I have a hard time believing they don't know about the RR. I've yet to see them mention it and I've yet to hear them explain how old the Gallup Poll is.

Sunday 9-12-04: Bush 48.3, Kerry 45.2

When are the debates.

I'd like to see the media focus more on the projected electoral vote polls than these total popular vote ones... you'd think after 2000 they wouldn't get so excited over a statistically insignificant lead by one candidate in popular vote, but I guess they've got to report something.

I agree. The Rass. Report has it at 213 for Bush and 175 for Kerry, but they do not include Mich. and New Jersey for Kerry. I doubt Bush will win those states, if not then they are virtually tied. 270 needed this year to win.
What I wish the media wouldn't do is try to mislead everyone into thinking that Bush is pulling away, esp. when they old data.

To coin and revise an old phrase:

You can tell the media is misleading (some call it lying) somebody if their lips move.

Today (9-14): Bush 47.1, Kerry 46.5. Keeps getting closer.

I, for one, woudln't--and won't--put much stock in polls. Sure, the polls are supposed to be nonpartisan, but the pollster can change the way the question is answer by simply changing emphasis or inflections in the question.

I do wonder why Senator Kerry keeps bringing up his military record--the President's campaign is killing him on that topic. When one considers the few states the Senator is paying for ads in, is it possible that the DNC is giving up the election to focus on 2008?

Here's an interesting daily tracker of the race:

http://slate.com/id/2106527/

Yeah, IF the elections were held today. When are those debates? The post debate polls will be the most telling. If Kerry doesn't lead after them, then I'd say the Dems should look to 2008. I see we're actually giving up ground in Fallujah now. I'd like to hear the explanation on that one.

Also, most political news coming from Fox news leans to the conservative side...

I'm excited for the debates. And, for some odd reason, the V.P. debates. Edwards is a great speaker, it will be interesting to see if he can bust up Cheney (who recently has been saying a lot of strange crap).