Thursday Sagarin Projections

[ZifCat52]

Here are the updated Sagarin projections after Tuesday's 3 non-conference games.

Montana State 11 / 3
Montana 9 / 5
Northern Arizona 9 / 5
Portland State 9 / 5
Weber State 6 / 8
Eastern Washington 6 / 8
Sacramento State 3 / 11
Idaho State 3 / 11


Projected winners for Thursday's games

Eastern Washington over Montana State

Portland State over Montana


Go Cats!!!

[CARDIAC_CATS]

I think we beat Eastern Washington (seem to play pretty well there usually) and lose at Portland State on the end part of that trip. Hopefully we can nail both of them which we totally can do if we put a complete game together.

[mslacat]

Projected winners for Thursday's games

Eastern Washington over Montana State

Portland State over Montana


Go Cats!!!

Yea baby, they picked us to lose!
I like being picked as the underdog.

BTW Portland State starting off guard is out for the next few games with a stress fractor, I think that may give the Griz some hope. I really, look at Portland State being a tough game to win at their house on the second game of a long road trip........... but not impossible.

[velochat]

Zif: Could you translate those numbers? Are they gambling odds?

[wbtfg]

it looks like the projected conference record to me. I could be wrong though

[mslacat]

it looks like the projected conference record to me. I could be wrong though

Thats what i thought they were, too!

BTW if Durham and company goes 11-3 in conference, that will be the single most impresive coaching job, by Durham , that I have ever seen in the the Big Sky, and I have been watching the B.S. Confrence from the mid 70's. From recruiting this team to putting them on the floor, from what he started with last March to now. 11-3 would be out of this world!

[MSU01]

The Sagarin ratings have a built-in way of predicting outcomes of future games. For example, EWU's Sagarin rating is currently 67.64, while MSU's rating is 71.13. There is a "home advantage" number that you add to the home team. Currently, that is 4.14, so EWU's adjusted rating is 67.64+4.14=71.78. EWU has the higher rating after adjusting for the home team, so they are projected to win the game by a theoretical margin of 0.65 points (71.78-71.13). What zifcat (I assume) is doing is to do this projection for all the remaining unplayed games, and combine the projections with the current standings.

[ZifCat52]

The projections are based on the Sagarin ratings as MSU01 stated, I use the current ratings to look at all the past and future confernece games to see who would be favored for each game and what the overall conference standings will be at the end. The Sagarin ratings are supposed to be an unbiased computer ranking system and I'm not even sure that this is what they were intended for, but it does seem to work. Its usually fairly accurate, but there are always some suprises, for example, there have been 23 conference games so far and 6 have been upsets according to the current Sagarin numbers. As the numbers change, so do the games that get counted as upsets, but it is kind of fun to try to forecast. As teams win games, their rankings go up, so a past upset may in the future be called a 'should have won' game. I hope you enjoy these projections and take them with the grain of salt any system has, but it has been fun to watch the Cats move up in the rankings and actually watch the Big Sky move up a little as well.