Monday's Projection

ZifCat52 · Post by **ZifCat52** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 2:00 pm

Northern Arizona is projected to win tonight and become the #6 seed. The Lumberjacks have everything to play for, the Grizzlies can pick their matchup next week, interesting!! (Please don't use this as an implication that the Grizzlies, or anyone else, would purposely win or lose a game for their own benefit, I really believe Krysco will get the Griz ready for tonight's game and give it their best effort)

I will project Saturday's games on Friday, though in all likelihood, both Sac State and the Griz will be favored because they are playing at home. Does anyone have some input on the application of the home advantage in the tourney? Portland State is 'home' in Portland, but not in their own gym, should they still get the home court adjustment? How about all the other teams, should they be viewed as straight up, or should the higher seed get the home adjustment?

BleedsBlue&Gold · Post by **BleedsBlue&Gold** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 2:06 pm

This is as nuetral of a site as there could be for a Big Sky Tourney.
Crowd will be NO factor for anyone. Imagine a "Cat-Griz" game that has fewer spectators then most Science Project Fairs.
PSU may have a slight shooting advantage, but any team is likely to get hot there too.
Cats have excellant shot to win tourney.

Barnbat · Post by **Barnbat** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 3:10 pm

If the tourney comes down to PSU MSU UM and Sacremento.

1 Portland State vs SAC 4

Small advantage Portland State because they start 4 Seniors. Also Portland State plays more as a team. Sac plays a lot of individual basket ball very well. Portland State looks better and would look better in the NCAA.

3 Montana State vs Montana 4

Small advantage Montana State unless Montana beats Northern Arizona in Flagstaff and then the advantage cats would be even smaller if Montana has four wins in a row entering tournament with the big one being at Flagstaff. If Montana loses tonight at flagstaff then its major advantage cats. If MT can not win in Flagstaff they are not ready for NCAA or big sky tournament.

Barnbat · Post by **Barnbat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:00 am

Montana 77 Northern Arizona 69
Montana vs Eastern Wa. Saturday at 2:00 pm
Weber is at Sacremento SAT night.

Montana State plays highest remaining seed which could be Montana.
Final conference

PSU 11-3
MSU 9-5
UM 9-5
SAC 8-6
WSU 7-7
EW 5-9

NAU was not hitting the three early and Montana got up 12. Up 10 at the half. NAU cut it to three to start the 2nd half. But trailed by around 5 until the end. Montana down to nine players which makes everyone play better and had 8 for this game due to Strait sick.

Cats15 · Post by **Cats15** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:07 pm

Ok so if eastern upsets montana would we play the winner of the weber sac. game. because wouldnt both of them be higher ranked then eastern?

Post by **rtb** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:10 pm

Yes, that is what would happen. If EWU wins they end up playing PSU and we get the other winner.

theblackgecko · Post by **theblackgecko** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:39 pm

Here are my projections for the 'Sky tournament.
Early games:
EWU @ Montana: Since most on the board are completely blinded by hatred of the Griz, there isn't going to be much objective analysis of this game. The Griz should win easily, and are playing very good basketball right now. For the record, I did predict EWU's struggles at the beginning of the year, when everyone else was giving them the preseason number 1, so this is vindication.
Weber @ Sac: It's a battle of a traditonal power versus Sac, which seems to get better every year, despite playing in a gym that would inspire humor from class C schools. I'll take Sac, due to the home court advantage, and generally superior play from what I have seen.

Montana/Montana State: Yes, MSU won big in Brick Breeden fieldhouse to give the Griz their last loss. Yes, MSU won in Missoula, when Kamar Davis was on the academically ineligible list. If you look at the box stats from the PSU/Montana State game, you'll see that Portland State played their starters for a good amount of the game, and had intent to win. This one is a toss-up, but I'll give the advantage to Montana, since Montana has shown more ability to play on the road than the 'Cats, now that Davis is back. Montana State has been losing important games recently, which is not where a team wants to be. It should be another great game, and hopefully the Montana/Montana State fans in Portland will come out for this big game.

Sac@Portland State: Portland State isn't going to have a lot of fans in the Colessium, (which is a big place), so it will feel like a neutral game. I've got to take Portland State here, but I think this one might be close.

Montana / Portland State: The teams do it again, this time Portland State knows it counts, and gets to play away from Dahlberg. Ever since Kamar Davis came back, the Griz have been the team most equipped to win away from home in the 'Sky, and this will be the big test. Montana has a lot of weapons, so I'll take the Griz in an upset.

BTBCat · Post by **BTBCat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:12 pm

The one glaring problem I see with the Griz is their guards. It is widely recognized that to be successful in a tournament situation you need good guard play. Lynch and Martin are less than average in my eyes so that could haunt them a little bit. I think if you have good guard play from the cats with few turnovers and good shot selection, the cats have a great shot!!

Go Cats!

Helcat72 · Post by **Helcat72** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:23 pm

I would dearly love to see us in the final, but I fear that Mick does not think he can beat a team three times. My fear is that rather than going into the game to win...he's hoping not to lose! I hope I'm wrong, but if i had to put money on it...I would pick the friz to go to the final (if they beat EWU)

If Mick can get the "three time and road monkey" off his back this time...it may just change the "karma of the Bobcat basketball".

mthoops · Post by **mthoops** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:57 pm

BTBCat wrote: Lynch and Martin are less than average in my eyes so that could haunt them a little bit.!

Less than average. That's kind of a bold statement. Lynch is done for the year with an injury, but I'd say they are both AT LEAST average to be on a D1 scholarship and both got substantial playing time as True Freshman.

mslacat · Post by **mslacat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:10 pm

BTBCat wrote:The one glaring problem I see with the Griz is their guards. It is widely recognized that to be successful in a tournament situation you need good guard play. Lynch and Martin are less than average in my eyes so that could haunt them a little bit. I think if you have good guard play from the cats with few turnovers and good shot selection, the cats have a great shot!!

Go Cats!

Lynch getting is out w/ an injury which could actually work out good for the Griz forcing
them play Matthew’s some at the point. I might believe Martin is less than average when
compared to all of the starting point guards in the league but has a real up side. As with
most freshman he has been up and down all season. He is capable of playing with some
of the better point guards in the league when he is on his game. The best things about
Freshman is that they become Sophomores! The Griz are clearly the 3rd best team in the
league records or not aside, but from what I have seen the key to the tournament for them
is how much freedom Krisco gives Criswell and to some degree Douhley. If Krysco
handcuffs those guys , as he does when he gets conservative, the Griz really need to play
in your face defense and ride Davis.

Barnbat · Post by **Barnbat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:14 pm

BTBCat wrote:The one glaring problem I see with the Griz is their guards. It is widely recognized that to be successful in a tournament situation you need good guard play. Lynch and Martin are less than average in my eyes so that could haunt them a little bit. I think if you have good guard play from the cats with few turnovers and good shot selection, the cats have a great shot!!

Go Cats!

Lynch has been out for a few games with a broken hand. Montana is down to 9 players who know they are going to have to play. Criswell is not a bad guard to have in a crisis. Virgil Mathews has been playing and Lamarr Farr has lots of ability. Matt Martin had one turnover vs Portland State. The other 3 top teams have fantastic atheletes at guard but Montana has lived and died by how Criswell goes and he goes pretty well at times. Made 24 free throws in last two games. Jefferson, Funn, Walker, Harris, Freeman and others would be nice to have but if it gets close in the end Criswell will do whatever it takes to get it done.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 5:57 pm

theblackgecko wrote:Here are my projections for the 'Sky tournament.
Early games:
EWU @ Montana: Since most on the board are completely blinded by hatred of the Griz, there isn't going to be much objective analysis of this game. The Griz should win easily, and are playing very good basketball right now. For the record, I did predict EWU's struggles at the beginning of the year, when everyone else was giving them the preseason number 1, so this is vindication.
Weber @ Sac: It's a battle of a traditonal power versus Sac, which seems to get better every year, despite playing in a gym that would inspire humor from class C schools. I'll take Sac, due to the home court advantage, and generally superior play from what I have seen.

Montana/Montana State: Yes, MSU won big in Brick Breeden fieldhouse to give the Griz their last loss. Yes, MSU won in Missoula, when Kamar Davis was on the academically ineligible list. If you look at the box stats from the PSU/Montana State game, you'll see that Portland State played their starters for a good amount of the game, and had intent to win. This one is a toss-up, but I'll give the advantage to Montana, since Montana has shown more ability to play on the road than the 'Cats, now that Davis is back. Montana State has been losing important games recently, which is not where a team wants to be. It should be another great game, and hopefully the Montana/Montana State fans in Portland will come out for this big game.

Sac@Portland State: Portland State isn't going to have a lot of fans in the Colessium, (which is a big place), so it will feel like a neutral game. I've got to take Portland State here, but I think this one might be close.

Montana / Portland State: The teams do it again, this time Portland State knows it counts, and gets to play away from Dahlberg. Ever since Kamar Davis came back, the Griz have been the team most equipped to win away from home in the 'Sky, and this will be the big test. Montana has a lot of weapons, so I'll take the Griz in an upset.

I love how you start this post by claiming most of us Bobcat fans are "blinded by hatred of the grizzlies" and are thus incapable of showing any objectivity, then proceed to pick the grizzlies to pull 2 upsets and win the tournament.

First off, don't count out Eastern so easily. How soon you forget that it took a last-second shot to beat them just last week.

Second, what makes you say the griz have shown a better ability to win on the road than the Cats? Is it their identical 3-4 league road records?

I don't know that the Cats will win the tourney, although I think they have a great shot if one of our guards gets hot and hits a bunch of threes. Then again, we have shown a disturbing knack for not being able to throw the ball into the ocean when on the road, too.

I do know that the grizzlies' weakness is their point guard position, which will keep them from winning the tourney. Martin, although a complete punk, will be good in a couple years - but he flat out sucks right now. They have no one to run the point effectively, and this will never be more evident than during postseason play.

Barnbat · Post by **Barnbat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:26 pm

Guards get hot and hit threes. That would be nice but those high bounding missed threes present problems. This time of year sometimes you just need to play defense and take it to the hole. Although a three here and there can provide some excitement.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 7:52 pm

Barnbat wrote: Guards get hot and hit threes. That would be nice but those high bounding missed threes present problems. This time of year sometimes you just need to play defense and take it to the hole. Although a three here and there can provide some excitement.

Playing defense and taking it to the hole should have been considered givens!

We did that last weekend and came --this-- close to beating Portland State. If we can hit a couple more threes this time around (assuming the match-up happens, not at all a given), I think we will have a great chance to knock them off.

Helcat72 · Post by **Helcat72** » Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:38 pm

BozoneCat wrote:
Barnbat wrote: Guards get hot and hit threes. That would be nice but those high bounding missed threes present problems. This time of year sometimes you just need to play defense and take it to the hole. Although a three here and there can provide some excitement.
Playing defense and taking it to the hole should have been considered givens! We did that last weekend and came --this-- close to beating Portland State. If we can hit a couple more threes this time around (assuming the match-up happens, not at all a given), I think we will have a great chance to knock them off.

I hope Marvin Moss will also not have the flu again!

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 12:46 am

Barnbat wrote: This time of year sometimes you just need to play defense and take it to the hole. Although a three here and there can provide some excitement.

....Right. The 'cats are as good defensively now as they have been in a while, between steals by Jefferson and Durham, blocks by Beye and Pratt, and solid on the ball defense by Durham and Durr, not to mention that the rest of the team plays defense well.

They do have the ability to play inside, w/ Al and Marvin (had we done this in overtime against PSU, we WOULD have won the game).

They also have the slashing ability of Dissly and even Jefferson (with his jumping ability). I think they stand a good chance of running the table, and be dancing come selection sunday.

theblackgecko · Post by **theblackgecko** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 5:40 pm

BozoneCat wrote:I love how you start this post by claiming most of us Bobcat fans are "blinded by hatred of the grizzlies" and are thus incapable of showing any objectivity, then proceed to pick the grizzlies to pull 2 upsets and win the tournament.

True, I'm not the most objective when it comes to picking, but I reveal the methods to my madness in explaining why I see things the way they are. All are free to disagree with my picks.

BozoneCat wrote: First off, don't count out Eastern so easily. How soon you forget that it took a last-second shot to beat them just last week.

I saw EWU in Brick Breeden, and wasn't impressed with what I saw, compared to the other BSC teams I saw in Brick Breeden (Weber, NAU, Portland State, Sac). Montana had a ton of turnovers in that game, which shows more about Montana's ability to have a bad game than EWU's quality.

BozoneCat wrote: Second, what makes you say the griz have shown a better ability to win on the road than the Cats? Is it their identical 3-4 league road records?

theblackgecko wrote:Montana has shown more ability to play on the road than the 'Cats, now that Davis is back

The end of that quote is where the justification comes from.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 10:28 pm

theblackgecko wrote:I saw EWU in Brick Breeden, and wasn't impressed with what I saw, compared to the other BSC teams I saw in Brick Breeden (Weber, NAU, Portland State, Sac). Montana had a ton of turnovers in that game, which shows more about Montana's ability to have a bad game than EWU's quality.

Well, I do agree with that. I looked over at my friends during the Eastern game and asked them, "how did we lose to these guys by 14 earlier in the year???" No one had a good answer. Eastern looked terrible that night, although Marc Axton is a hell of a good player.