How will Big Sky Standings end up?

cornbreadfred · Post by **cornbreadfred** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 11:36 pm

So everyone has an opinion about how there team is going to be, due to the fact that there are also griz fans on this message board. I want everyone to put how they think the Big Sky Conference standings will end, this way we have proof of who really understands BSC football, and who just blows stuff out there a$$.

cornbreadfred · Post by **cornbreadfred** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 11:37 pm

1. EWU
2. MSU
3. UM
4. ISU
5. SPU
6. WSU
7. Sac St.
8. NAU

cornbreadfred · Post by **cornbreadfred** » Thu Oct 06, 2005 11:38 pm

I'm willing to take the heat for bad picks, who else is?

gtapp · Post by **gtapp** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 5:37 am

Looks as good as any I've seen.

grizbeer · Post by **grizbeer** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 8:36 am

Here is a crazy scenario:
1) 5 way tie at 5-2 in conference:
UM, MSU, EWU, PSU, ISU
6) WSU 2-5
7) Sac State 1-6

NAU 0-8

in order for this to happen,
1) MSU loses to EWU and PSU on the road, beats WSU on the road, wins all road games.
2) UM loses to ISU and MSU on the road, beats NAU and Sac State on the road, wins all home games.
3) EWU loses to ISU (already) and UM on the road, beats NAU and Sac on the road, wins all home games.
4) PSU loses to EWU (already) and UM on the road, beats ISU on the road, wins all home games.
5) ISU loses to MSU on the road (already), beats Sac, WSU, and NAU on the road, Loses to PSU at home and beats EWU (already) and UM at home.
6) Weber State beats NAU (already) and Sac State, loses the rest.
7) Sac State beats NAU (already), loses the rest.

NAU loses all.

It could happen.

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:12 am

1) ISU 6-1 (runs table after loss at MSU)
2) EWU 6-1 (runs table after loss at ISU)
3) MSU 5-2 (losses at EW and Portland keep Cats out of hunt)
4) UM 4-3 (loses finale at MSU to miss playoffs)
5) PSU 4-3 (loss at UM costs Vikes)
6) WSU
7) SSU
8- NAU

ISU gets auto bid, EWU gets at large.

mquast53000 · Post by **mquast53000** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:19 am

EWU has no defense and PSU has no passing game... I guess I just don't think either of those teams can beat the Cats. Of course I will know more after this weekend, but right now this is how I see things shaking out:

1. MSU
2. ISU
3. EWU
4. PSU
5. UM
6. WSU
7. SSU
8. NAU

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:36 am

Quast, take a look here

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plys Yards Avg TD Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------
Montana............. 4 289 853 279 1142 4.1 5 285.5
Idaho State......... 5 363 1147 300 1510 5.0 14 302.0
Weber State......... 5 796 746 318 1542 4.8 13 308.4
Montana State....... 5 915 729 341 1644 4.8 10 328.8
Eastern Washington.. 4 661 713 300 1374 4.6 11 343.5
Northern Arizona.... 5 734 1022 345 1756 5.1 14 351.2
Portland State...... 5 562 1255 356 1817 5.1 16 363.4
Sacramento State.... 5 719 1131 354 1850 5.2 20 370.0

It seems to me that the Cat defense is not statistically that much better than the Eagles.

Also, Portland St may not pass the ball well, but the Cats do not stop the run well, so with this game in Portland, it will be a battle.

This is an odd year in the Big Sky, because the passing offense is way down, and the ruhsing offense is way up, and if the Cats have a weakness, it is rush defense, which in my opinion, will make every road game difficult for the Cats. On the flipside, until the Griz can show that the offense can score more than 7 points, they could lose every game they have left.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:36 am

My take is that the Cats will beat PSU but won't be able to keep up with Eastern's offense.

EWU 6-1 (runs the table after ISU)
MSU 6-1 (only loss to EWU)
ISU 5-2 (losses to MSU & PSU)
PSU 5-2 (losses to MSU and EWU)
UM 3-4 (losses to ISU, EWU, PSU, and MSU)
WSU 2-5 (wins over NAU & SAC)
SAC 1-6 (beats NAU)
NAU 0-7

TODAY, the only significant change I can see here is that perhaps the Griz beat PSU, leaving them both 4-3. I say this because PSU hasn't thrown the ball well, and that's the best way (but not the only way) to beat the Griz.

Obviously Saturday is a pretty big day, mainly for the Cats & Griz; MSU needs to prove it can win on the road in a game it SHOULD win (SAC, 2004?). The Griz need to prove that their narrow home victories were just a fluke and that they ARE going to be a factor. A loss to ISU will not only signify they've slipped a bit, it will pretty much put them in must-win situations in their next 2 Big Sky games, where they host EWU and PSU. Right now, I am confident that the Cats will beat the Griz in November, so that means a loss @ ISU makes it impossible for them to win the BSC title outright and very difficult to even get a share of it.

biobengal · Post by **biobengal** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:46 am

Just a little FYI: The bengals are not a road team.......period. We have NEVER won in Sacramento, we havn't beat Weber in Ogden in nearly two decades (in fact, ISU was Weber's only win last year), we are something like 25-6 in Flaggstaff, and we still play Cal Poly in SLO town. Bengal fans know better than to put hte cart before the horse, there is still an awful lot of football to be played, and most of ISU's will be on the road.

mquast53000 · Post by **mquast53000** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:59 am

grizindahouse wrote:It seems to me that the Cat defense is not statistically that much better than the Eagles.

You have to keep in mind who the Cats have played, and who the Eagles have played. The Cats didn't get a D-II school to pad their stats. Imagine if the Cats played Fort Lewis instead of Cal Poly, people would be looking at the Cats in a different light, and we would most likely be ranked in the top 5. That is why I think this will be a telling week for EWU, UM and the MSU. We will be able to finally compare common opponents, and the BSC will begin to have some shape.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:07 am

grizindahouse wrote:Quast, take a look here

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plys Yards Avg TD Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------
Montana............. 4 289 853 279 1142 4.1 5 285.5
Idaho State......... 5 363 1147 300 1510 5.0 14 302.0
Weber State......... 5 796 746 318 1542 4.8 13 308.4
Montana State....... 5 915 729 341 1644 4.8 10 328.8
Eastern Washington.. 4 661 713 300 1374 4.6 11 343.5
Northern Arizona.... 5 734 1022 345 1756 5.1 14 351.2
Portland State...... 5 562 1255 356 1817 5.1 16 363.4
Sacramento State.... 5 719 1131 354 1850 5.2 20 370.0

It seems to me that the Cat defense is not statistically that much better than the Eagles.

Also, Portland St may not pass the ball well, but the Cats do not stop the run well, so with this game in Portland, it will be a battle.

This is an odd year in the Big Sky, because the passing offense is way down, and the ruhsing offense is way up, and if the Cats have a weakness, it is rush defense, which in my opinion, will make every road game difficult for the Cats. On the flipside, until the Griz can show that the offense can score more than 7 points, they could lose every game they have left.

Those stats include Griz and EW cupcake schedule games too. The Cats have played 4 teams in the Top 30 in 1-AA. Of course their defense will be giving up more on those stats.

(I.E - What QUAST said above after reading his post).

Very big games in the Big Sky this week (plus NDSU at Cal Poly). MSU needs NDSU to beat Cal Poly as NDSU doesn't get a playoff spot while Cal Poly can. Plus I have started to just hate Cal Poly

GO BISON!

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:31 am

House,

We've both played a big-time D-I team, so you can leave those stats or throw them out; doesn't matter.

But if you want to TRULY compare statistics at this point in the season, you should dump any stats from any game vs DII (or lower) opponents; to include those games is pure BS.

Before any of you griz fans go bashing on me that the Cats have played DII schools in the past, I would be saying the same thing if we had played one this year: dump those stats; they're meaningless, ESPECIALLY when they are currently accounting for 25% of the Griz's defensive #'s.

Here are some more facts for you:

Analyzing the DI and I-AA results for the Cats and the Griz, our defenses have done the following in games to date this season:

MSU has held their opponents offenses 8% below their season averages for total yards.

UM has held their opponents offenses 17% below their season averages for total yards.

MSU has allowed their opponents 31% fewer points than their opponents have averaged.

UM has allowed their opponents 14% fewer points than their opponents have averaged.

Based on those #'s and given the fact that no one can argue that the Cats have faced a much tougher schedule, I've got no problem with how our defense has performed to this point nor how it compares to the Griz.

grizbeer · Post by **grizbeer** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:31 am

El_Gato wrote: Obviously Saturday is a pretty big day, mainly for the Cats & Griz; MSU needs to prove it can win on the road in a game it SHOULD win (SAC, 2004?). The Griz need to prove that their narrow home victories were just a fluke and that they ARE going to be a factor. A loss to ISU will not only signify they've slipped a bit, it will pretty much put them in must-win situations in their next 2 Big Sky games, where they host EWU and PSU. Right now, I am confident that the Cats will beat the Griz in November, so that means a loss @ ISU makes it impossible for them to win the BSC title outright and very difficult to even get a share of it.

The Griz have to win all their home games, no doubt, but in the scheme of things the ISU results are no that important to the Griz - yes it will hurt them in the rankings, but if Montana doesn't beat EWU and PSU at home it won't mater if they beat ISU on the road. If Montana loses to ISU but still wins their home games and beats NAU and Sac on the road, Griz-Cat is for BSC in a best-case scenario for the Cat's.

And what does it say about the Cat's chances if Montana beats ISU on the road with a QB that hasn't had any meaningful snaps in an offense that should be far better (due to experience in the system) at the end of the season than they are at this point, after MSU slipped by ISU at home?

This is a must win for MSU on the other hand, because this should be the easiest road game MSU has. Lose this game and it is an uphill battle for the rest of the season.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:37 am

grizbeer wrote:
El_Gato wrote: Obviously Saturday is a pretty big day, mainly for the Cats & Griz; MSU needs to prove it can win on the road in a game it SHOULD win (SAC, 2004?). The Griz need to prove that their narrow home victories were just a fluke and that they ARE going to be a factor. A loss to ISU will not only signify they've slipped a bit, it will pretty much put them in must-win situations in their next 2 Big Sky games, where they host EWU and PSU. Right now, I am confident that the Cats will beat the Griz in November, so that means a loss @ ISU makes it impossible for them to win the BSC title outright and very difficult to even get a share of it.
The Griz have to win all their home games, no doubt, but in the scheme of things the ISU results are no that important to the Griz - yes it will hurt them in the rankings, but if Montana doesn't beat EWU and PSU at home it won't mater if they beat ISU on the road. If Montana loses to ISU but still wins their home games and beats NAU and Sac on the road, Griz-Cat is for BSC in a best-case scenario for the Cat's.

And what does it say about the Cat's chances if Montana beats ISU on the road with a QB that hasn't had any meaningful snaps in an offense that should be far better (due to experience in the system) at the end of the season than they are at this point, after MSU slipped by ISU at home?

This is a must win for MSU on the other hand, because this should be the easiest road game MSU has. Lose this game and it is an uphill battle for the rest of the season.

What it means is that you can't compare football games from week to week. Anyone in the Big Sky can beat anyone on a given weekend if certain things happen/play well. And yes, believe me .... losing to ISU will definately hurt the Griz if they lose as that gives MSU the trump card as MSU beat ISU and EW and UM both lost to them. That is MSU's trump card towards the end of the season (assuming they take care of the games they should win). ISU/UM is a very big game.

Remember the Griz still have Cal Poly/EWU/MSU as well. They lose to ISU and then lose 2 of those and they could be out of of the playoffs.

Hell's Bells · Post by **Hell's Bells** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:40 am

1) MSU - d begins to jell by portland state game
2) EWU - meyer, Kimball, And Cole are scarey on O but they loose to cats becasue EWU dont have D
3) ISU only if they stop tossing int's
4) UM - griz ride Lex and Waller till they get tired and slump by at the latest with 3-4 games left on the schedule as lex and waller run out of gas

Prediction: BH lines up the griz in the wishbone in a shocking simler formation used the year before Papa Bear got hired

for the rest of the year.

the rest dont matter - everyone else sucks in a big way

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:50 am

grizbeer,

I stated that earlier; if the Griz beat ISU, then once again, they are the team to beat despite the fact that the rest of their October schedule is loaded with quality teams.

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:52 am

Let us use the common opponent when we compare EWU and MSU defense's by using the Idaho St game

EWU @ ISU

ISU had 167 passing and 134 rushing

ISU@MSU

ISU had 141 passing and 193 rushing

You make your decision, but saying EWU has an inferior defense to MSU right now, is in fact speculation.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 11:06 am

grizindahouse wrote:Let us use the common opponent when we compare EWU and MSU defense's by using the Idaho St game

EWU @ ISU

ISU had 167 passing and 134 rushing

ISU@MSU

ISU had 141 passing and 193 rushing

You make your decision, but saying EWU has an inferior defense to MSU right now, is in fact speculation.

The only stat I care about is EWU = LOSS and MSU = WIN. Again, you cannot compare game to game (weather/dome/turnovers/wind/ball bounced bad way a couple times/punter shanked 2 off his foot to set up shorter field position). I agree over the long haul that statistics tend to reflect more of how a team truly plays, but we are just one game into the Big Sky Conference season.

mquast53000 · Post by **mquast53000** » Fri Oct 07, 2005 11:08 am

grizindahouse wrote:Let us use the common opponent when we compare EWU and MSU defense's by using the Idaho St game

EWU @ ISU

ISU had 167 passing and 134 rushing

ISU@MSU

ISU had 141 passing and 193 rushing

You make your decision, but saying EWU has an inferior defense to MSU right now, is in fact speculation.

Yeah but EWU special teams and offensive turnovers gave ISU a short field all day...