Will more then one BSC school make the playoffs?

G.W.Bush · Post by **G.W.Bush** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:00 am

After this weekend I realized that there is a strong chance that only one BSC school could make it into the playoffs this season. That school of course will be the conference champs who will get the auto bid. I have to be honest, watching the Cats defense play I don't think we can beat EWU and we will not get the auto bid. The bye week has come at a very good point in the season for the Cats, but I doubt that they will be able to fix what is broken in one week. I think EWU will be the lone representative from the BSC this year. Thoughts?

tetoncat · Post by **tetoncat** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:17 pm

We have 4 teams rated in the top 25, we will get at least two into the playoffs.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:26 pm

You'll have the autobid team get in, and then any other 8-3 Big Sky team, so there's a chance of getting two in. I don't see us getting in three this year-that slot will probably go to Cal Poly unless they collapse. It's very rare (if ever) that a 7-4 team gets an at-large bid no matter how tough the schedule.

So...the Bobcats will go to the playoffs if they win out-but that's our only option.

Hell's Bells · Post by **Hell's Bells** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:07 pm

BelgradeBobcat wrote:You'll have the autobid team get in, and then any other 8-3 Big Sky team, so there's a chance of getting two in. I don't see us getting in three this year-that slot will probably go to Cal Poly unless they collapse. It's very rare (if ever) that a 7-4 team gets an at-large bid no matter how tough the schedule.

So...the Bobcats will go to the playoffs if they win out-but that's our only option.

it is a possibility that we get 3 in if their records are 8-3 or better

Obzerver · Post by **Obzerver** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:27 pm

What would happen if: 1) MSU beats UM but looses to EWU and ends up with four looses. 2) UM looses to MSU and wins the rest to end up with three looses(but a loss to MSU) 3) PSU looses to UM but wins the rest of their games 4) EWU wins the rest of their games to get the auto bid. Now you have three teams with two conference looses and tied for second(not sure how the tie-breaker would work). If they take two from the BSC would they give MSU the berth due to the fact they beat UM?

What scares me is that MSU plays at home vs Sac. State before the EWU game and EWU has back-to-back Cali trips playing Sac. State and Cal Poly before the MSU game.

grizhatr · Post by **grizhatr** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:28 pm

Don't really know why there is all this scuttle about the playoffs. Christ, we got beat by an unranked team. Maybe everyone should just stay focused on the next game, not planning any Thanksgiving's away just yet. Sorry but I am still very bitter about Saturday night.

Hell's Bells · Post by **Hell's Bells** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:38 pm

Obzerver wrote:What would happen if: 1) MSU beats UM but looses to EWU and ends up with four looses. 2) UM looses to MSU and wins the rest to end up with three looses(but a loss to MSU) 3) PSU looses to UM but wins the rest of their games 4) EWU wins the rest of their games to get the auto bid. Now you have three teams with two conference looses and tied for second(not sure how the tie-breaker would work). If they take two from the BSC would they give MSU the berth due to the fact they beat UM?

What scares me is that MSU plays at home vs Sac. State before the EWU game and EWU has back-to-back Cali trips playing Sac. State and Cal Poly before the MSU game.

obzerver

honestly

the only game that should care you is that little trip to cal poly bc those boys are good

other then that id be scared of wiplash if i were u

MSUcantouchus · Post by **MSUcantouchus** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:19 pm

grizhatr wrote:Don't really know why there is all this scuttle about the playoffs. Christ, we got beat by an unranked team. Maybe everyone should just stay focused on the next game, not planning any Thanksgiving's away just yet. Sorry but I am still very bitter about Saturday night.

Because we all realize that if the team can't make it to the playoffs with Lulay then we may be waiting along time to get back there. This is the year and we want Lulay to get a chance.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:45 pm

Everyone's aware of the new guidelines for the playoff committee right?!

1) 7 D-I "W's" get you considered for the at large spots. If we end up in this position, our strength of schedule will carry us into the playoffs. Also, the fact that the Big Sky is the top ranked conference this year also lends its hand to this thinking.

2) I like that Kramer told the Tribune we have to win out to make the playoffs; we need this mentality. All I know is everyone better start saving their quarters for gas to Cheyney in four weeks! We need a couple of thousand there at least!!!!!!!

PapaG · Post by **PapaG** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:05 am

grizhatr wrote:Don't really know why there is all this scuttle about the playoffs. Christ, we got beat by an unranked team. Maybe everyone should just stay focused on the next game, not planning any Thanksgiving's away just yet. Sorry but I am still very bitter about Saturday night.

I was at the game and have been unwilling to post about it. In other words, I feel exactlly the same way you do. That was an incredibly disappointing loss. I still can't believe that PSU forced the turnover with 23 seconds left. I'm getting mad just thinking about it. It's best if I stop posting now.

Bleedinbluengold · Post by **Bleedinbluengold** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:15 am

Obzerver wrote:What would happen if: 1) MSU beats UM but looses to EWU and ends up with four looses. 2) UM looses to MSU and wins the rest to end up with three looses(but a loss to MSU) 3) PSU looses to UM but wins the rest of their games 4) EWU wins the rest of their games to get the auto bid. Now you have three teams with two conference looses and tied for second(not sure how the tie-breaker would work). If they take two from the BSC would they give MSU the berth due to the fact they beat UM?

What scares me is that MSU plays at home vs Sac. State before the EWU game and EWU has back-to-back Cali trips playing Sac. State and Cal Poly before the MSU game.

I think that whoever was ranked highest of the 3 second place teams would get the playoff bid.

Side note: Congrats on a most excellent win last weekend by the Screamin' Eagles. I never thought that the Eagles would win - very impressive to say the least.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:58 pm

IMO, If we keep winning, have a good showing at EWU but lose, and beat the Griz, we are in the top ten, with a very good shot at getting in, especially if the griz falter down the stretch like most of us think they will. If we beat EWU, its all academic. We are in, no doubt. Easy eh? heres to 4-0 baby!!

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:48 am

grizzh8r wrote:IMO, If we keep winning, have a good showing at EWU but lose, and beat the Griz, we are in the top ten, with a very good shot at getting in, especially if the griz falter down the stretch like most of us think they will. If we beat EWU, its all academic. We are in, no doubt. Easy eh? heres to 4-0 baby!!

I'm not so sure. IF we're going to lose one of the last 4 games I'd rather it be NAU or Sac. State. 7 and 4 with wins over Eastern and the Griz will probably have us higher come playoff selection time?

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:51 pm

catatac wrote:
grizzh8r wrote:IMO, If we keep winning, have a good showing at EWU but lose, and beat the Griz, we are in the top ten, with a very good shot at getting in, especially if the griz falter down the stretch like most of us think they will. If we beat EWU, its all academic. We are in, no doubt. Easy eh? heres to 4-0 baby!!
I'm not so sure. IF we're going to lose one of the last 4 games I'd rather it be NAU or Sac. State. 7 and 4 with wins over Eastern and the Griz will probably have us higher come playoff selection time?

Understood, but wouldnt a loss at home to a cellar dwelling team look worse than a close game on the road to the (assuming EWU wins out) Conference champion?

grizhatr · Post by **grizhatr** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:00 pm

You guys need to quit right now. Don't you know that old saying,
"Don't count your chickens before they hatch"?

PDXKat · Post by **PDXKat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:36 pm

What if, and no one has mentioned this, but both us and PSU win out? PSU would get the auto but we'd have to go, so would EWU if they beat everyone but us right. Very interesting scenarios but only one that matters. Just win out and let the chips fall where they might.

GO CATS!

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:46 pm

barechestcat wrote:Everyone's aware of the new guidelines for the playoff committee right?!

1) 7 D-I "W's" get you considered for the at large spots. If we end up in this position, our strength of schedule will carry us into the playoffs. Also, the fact that the Big Sky is the top ranked conference this year also lends its hand to this thinking.

I disagree with that. You said it correctly when you said that seven wins would get you "considered," but that doesn't mean that at 7-4 your chances of getting in would actually be good (regardless of strength of schedule). It all depends on how the rest of the field is looking at the end of the season, but odds are there will be enough deserving teams with records better than 7-4 to fill the at-large spots; thus, while 7-4 will get you considered, it probably won't get you in. I'm not saying it *couldn't* happen, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:58 pm

Grizlaw wrote:
barechestcat wrote:Everyone's aware of the new guidelines for the playoff committee right?!

1) 7 D-I "W's" get you considered for the at large spots. If we end up in this position, our strength of schedule will carry us into the playoffs. Also, the fact that the Big Sky is the top ranked conference this year also lends its hand to this thinking.

I disagree with that. You said it correctly when you said that seven wins would get you "considered," but that doesn't mean that at 7-4 your chances of getting in would actually be good (regardless of strength of schedule). It all depends on how the rest of the field is looking at the end of the season, but odds are there will be enough deserving teams with records better than 7-4 to fill the at-large spots; thus, while 7-4 will get you considered, it probably won't get you in. I'm not saying it *couldn't* happen, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

You are correct to an extent. But, there could very well be 8-3 teams that either don't get an automatic bid or come from weak conferences without an automatic bid. These teams would be competing for at large bids with 7-4 teams. The teams that get in will have the stronger schedule and more impressive wins. So, my prediction is that some 7-4 teams will make it in before an 8-3 team.

I know it's from last year and it was with last year's standards, but Cal Poly didn't make it in with a 9-2 record. I can guarantee you it wasn't another team with a 9-2 record. They didn't make it due to a relatively weak schedule and the fact that they faded toward the end of the year.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:20 pm

barechestcat wrote:
Grizlaw wrote:
barechestcat wrote:Everyone's aware of the new guidelines for the playoff committee right?!

1) 7 D-I "W's" get you considered for the at large spots. If we end up in this position, our strength of schedule will carry us into the playoffs. Also, the fact that the Big Sky is the top ranked conference this year also lends its hand to this thinking.

I disagree with that. You said it correctly when you said that seven wins would get you "considered," but that doesn't mean that at 7-4 your chances of getting in would actually be good (regardless of strength of schedule). It all depends on how the rest of the field is looking at the end of the season, but odds are there will be enough deserving teams with records better than 7-4 to fill the at-large spots; thus, while 7-4 will get you considered, it probably won't get you in. I'm not saying it *couldn't* happen, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

You are correct to an extent. But, there could very well be 8-3 teams that either don't get an automatic bid or come from weak conferences without an automatic bid. These teams would be competing for at large bids with 7-4 teams. The teams that get in will have the stronger schedule and more impressive wins. So, my prediction is that some 7-4 teams will make it in before an 8-3 team.

I know it's from last year and it was with last year's standards, but Cal Poly didn't make it in with a 9-2 record. I can guarantee you it wasn't another team with a 9-2 record. They didn't make it due to a relatively weak schedule and the fact that they faded toward the end of the year.

I hear you, and like I said, I realize it could happen. I just don't think, at 7-4, your chances would be great, and your initial post made it sound like you think the Cats definitely "will" get in at 7-4 based on strength of schedule. My point is that, while schedule does count, at 7-4 there will be a lot of other teams with comparable (or better) records and who also played tough schedules competing for those eight at-large bids, and thus, I think to really have a good chance of getting in, the Cats do need to win out.

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:51 pm

If UM is 7-4, they'll most likely get in. The cmte will take UM at 7-4 over most 8-3 teams with Geo. Southern and other good draws being the exception. MSU would have to beat UM to be 7-4 and that would force the hand of the I-AA cmte to let MSU in, too. UM will get in because the cmte will set up a 'no-lose' situation. If the 1-4 seeded team loses to UM, the cmte can schedule a game in Missoula and rake in the bucks. The same can be said for MSU, but to a lesser extent. 23,000 vs. 14,000. I'm not sure where MSU is in the attendance, but I'm guessing close to the top 5.
But if MSU is alone at 7-4 w/o a win over UM, then it's not so likely.

The main thing for MSU is to improve on defense over the next three weeks.