Go Cats
• 20 win season first time in 20 years!
• Only second time starting at 20-5!
• 5th longest current win streak in Div I!
• 3rd longest road win streak in Div. I!
• Ranked 19th in the Mid-Majors Poll!
Go Cats
So what is the Cat’s path to the regular season championship? Well, other than the obvious of winning out, let’s look at scenarios that are more realistic. The Cats have a tough final five games. They play three of the top five teams and only have two home games. It looks almost for sure there will not be a rescheduled game against Southern Utah at home because SUU has NO empty slots as they had to cancel and reschedule 4 games. Both SUU and MSU will only end up with 19 conference games. More on that later.
The best scenario I see for the Cats is to win both home games and go 1-2 on the road. This would likely give us the championship or at least a tie. The chart spells it out but here is the summary:
1) Cats end up 15-4 or 16-3 (if they can win two on the road.)
2) Griz already have five losses.
3) If Cats beat UNC on the last game (which could be for the title for both teams), UNC will have five losses.
4) Weber has four losses and I cannot see a scenario where they win out. But if they do, it is possible they are tied with the Cats. Then the tiebreaker goes through head-to-head (1-1); then record against the next placed team, which likely is SUU. It is possible Cats lose this tiebreaker if we don’t beat SUU.
The good news is every top team has a tough road ahead of them to end the season. Here is my take on toughest final schedule to easiest.
1) Northern Colorado – The Bears have the toughest road. Due to postponements, they have eight games left in 3 weeks before the tournament including four against top five teams. If they can get through this gantlet, they may be exhausted by Boise. I gave them the benefit of the doubt and a 6-2 record including wins against Weber and Southern Utah. They do have four home games. I figure they may be burned out by the time they make the Montana loop in March. Maybe they lose both of those games.
2) Southern Utah – Their road is almost as hard as the Bears. Thunderbirds have six games left (second only to UNC’s
and they play four top teams (MSU, UM, Weber, and UNC). In addition, four of their final six games are on the road. However, even with this difficult schedule, I can see Southern Utah going 4-2 in the final weeks. If they can go 5-1, I believe they will win the conference regular season championship. 3) MSU Bobcats – The Cats are right in the middle – five games, three against top teams; only two home games. Not the easiest road but not the hardest. Cats must win one road game. I would like it to be against Southern Utah but I think it will be at Cheney. If they drop a game, I am fine with it being against the Griz as they are out of the picture. I am predicting the last game of the season against UNC will be for the regular season championship and for the #1 seed in the tournament.
4) UM Grizzlies – The Griz have a fairly easy road. Only five games, three home games and only three against top teams with two of those games are at home (MSU and UNC). I think the Griz can go 4-1 down the stretch. That is not good enough to get them the conference title unless there is some sort of total meltdown by SUU, Weber and the Bobcats. I see them getting 4th/5th place and playing Northern Colorado after a first round bye.
5) Weber State – Weber has the easiest road. They only have five games left and three home games. In addition, they only play two of the top teams (UNC and SUU). However, given how poorly Weber has played the two weeks, it seems going 4-1 as I am predicting could be a long shot. I mean, they lost today to Idaho who is a true bottom feeder. I do think Weber can pull off a win against UNC or Southern Utah. Cats really need UNC and/or Weber to defeat SUU. I think Weber likely gets the 3rd spot in the tournament although their late season swoon gives me cause for concern.
Tiebreaker Rules:
I searched high and low for the tiebreaker rules when the schedule is unbalanced. What if the Bobcats end up 15-4 and Weber ends up 16-4? What if Cats are 16-3 and UNC is 16-4? Will it be based on win-loss percentage? This could penalize the Cats because they do not get in a full 20 game schedule.
I found a video about last season. It looks like the win/loss percentage will be the initial tiebreaker. This could possibly leave MSU and SUU tied at 15-4 and Weber at 16-4 with Weber winning the conference championship. I can see a scenario where on the last day of the season, the UNC-MSU game and the WSU-SUU game will have championship implications.
For example, 1) Cats and Weber win, Cats get the title. 2) Cats win but SUU wins, SUU gets the title. 3) Bears win and Weber wins, Weber gets the title… and finally, Bears Win and SUU Wins, Bears are champion. Or something wild like this. The last two games of the season could end up with four different champions depending on the outcomes.
If MSU and SUU are tied at the end of the season (16-3 or 15-4), then the championship will have been decided in Cedar City on the 19th of February as it will be a winner take all game! Maybe we just need the Cats to beat Southern Utah on the road to put all this speculation to bed.
Give me your thoughts!!
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