Men's Path to the Big Sky Championship

[Catprint]

The video is hilarious!! But I don't know if I am Justin27 or TheJosh. Maybe the last 4 games is really over 8 days since 4 divided by 2 is 2 and 2 times 4 is 8. I mean it is one weekend to the next and I always thought that was 9 days right? Week days is 5 plus 2 weekend plus 2 weekend is 9! Wait, is it 9 days? That's not too bad. 4 games in 9 days....

[DMMDCats]

Too bad it’s not a leap year.

[John K]

So what do I know. Not yet on Big Sky Conference website or on MSUbobcats.com. Seems like a terrible situation for the Cats. Sunday - play the Griz away; Tuesday - Play SUU at home; Thursday - Sac State at Home; Saturday - Northern Colo - at home. Yes, three home games so that is good. But 4 games in 6 days and the last game could very well be for the Big Sky Championship or a piece of it. Oh well, I least I get my full season ticket value.

On a side note, my rough assessment of the remaining schedules suggests it is possible (maybe 10-20% chance) that 4 teams could end up 15-5.I would guess also a 70-80% chance there will be at least two teams tied for title at 16-4. If Cats truly have 6 games left, we have to go 4-2 to win outright (with a win against SUU and UNC). I am assuming Weber does not win out which is possible but unlikely. If they do and Cats go 4-2, then tiebreaker would be difficult to predict but Weber would be 2-0 against UNC and SUU while Cats would be 1-1 against both teams which would mean Weber wins the tiebreaker (record against the next lowest seeded team). Of course, we go 6-0 or 5-1; then all this nonsense is for naught. Maybe I should just stick to predicting the stock market. Way easier!

One minor correction...if MSU plays Sunday - Tuesday - Thursday - Saturday, that's actually 4 games in 7 days, not 6 days. Sunday through Saturday is one full week, and unless I've been terribly misinformed about such things my entire life, a full week is 7 days, not 6...haha. Either way, that's obviously going to be a challenging stretch, but with all the COVID related cancellations, I'd guess we may not be the only team that's going to be thrust into a situation like this, as the regular season winds down. I'd much rather have all the teams play their full 20 game conference schedules, if at all possible, rather than having a few teams playing only 18 or 19 games, even if it means that some teams have to fit an extra game or two into the schedule before the BSC tourney begins.

So I look at it from actual 24-hour periods because that is what the Cats have to physically endure. First game is 3 PM on Sunday. Last game is 4 PM on Saturday. That is 4 games, one every other day, over six 24-hour periods. So in military parlance and pure mathematics, 144 hours is only 6 days! (technically 145 hours!!!) Guess that's why my employees call me the Spreadsheet King. Nothing to hang my hat on unless I get into a math calculation contest without a calculator!!!
But any way you look at it, not a pleasant task.

I see what you're saying, and I'll even admit that your calculations are correct, with one caveat. Since the final game of that stretch won't be completed until approximately 2 hours after it begins, I think it would be more accurate to say that the Cats are playing 4 games over a span of 147 hours (or 6.125 24-hour periods) rather than 145 hours. I'm a total math nerd, so I actually get some sort of twisted, warped enjoyment from discussions like this...lol.

A couple of tough losses for the MSU men and women last night, and a couple of big games against SUU tomorrow afternoon. Fortunately, there were a couple of other upsets on the women's side, so the MSU women are still tied for 1st (in the loss column). It's very disappointing though, because both teams appeared to have their games in hand, as the women led by 11 going into the final quarter, and the men led by 7 with about 3 and a half minutes to go. Battle was unbelievably clutch, hitting those 2 long 3-pointers, and scoring 7 points on consecutive possessions. Watching that, I had flashbacks to Reggie Miller's game against the Knicks in the NBA playoffs back in the mid 90's.

[MSU01]

Well, other than the loss to EWU on Thursday I don't think this weekend's results could've gone any better for MSU.

- UM loses at Idaho for their 6th conference loss.
- UNCU loses at Idaho State for their 5th conference loss.
- MSU beats SUU to give them their 5th conference loss.
- UNCU comes back to take down Weber in OT and give them their 5th conference loss.

MSU ends the weekend with the same 2 game lead in the loss column they started it with. A 3-1 finish guarantees a regular season title and a 2-2 finish guarantees no worse than a tie.

[mslacatfan]

Big win for northern colorado over Weber in OT. Giving the cats a bigger cushion for the big sky lead.

Go cats

[GoldstoneCat]

Big win for northern colorado over Weber in OT. Giving the cats a bigger cushion for the big sky lead.

Go cats

Yeah that helps. Protect our home floor now and we're big sky champs.

[BelgradeBobcat]

We don't play another regular season game outside the State of Montana...of course one of those games is in a venue where we haven't won since when??? very early in Huse's tenure? Still-we've got a great chance to add a date to the banner.

[MSU01]

Remaining schedules for the top 5 are as follows:

MSU (13-3): @UM, vs SUU, vs Sac, vs UNC (MSU has clinched 1st round bye)
Weber (12-5): @PSU, @NAU, vs SUU
SUU(10-5): @NAU, vs UM, @MSU, @ISU, @WSU
UNC(10-5): vs ISU, vs EWU, vs Idaho, @UM, @MSU
UM(10-6): @SUU, vs MSU, vs UNC, vs Sac

Brutal stretch run for SUU who plays three other teams in the Top 5 and only has one home game left. Weber has lost 4 of 5 and has a tough road trip next weekend against two teams that have played much better in the second half of conference play. UM has a pretty favorable remaining schedule but has likely dug itself too big of a hole to realistically have a shot at the #1 seed at this point.

The biggest threat to MSU as the #1 seed would appear to be UNC, which has three very winnable home games in a row before the final road trip to Montana. That MSU vs UNC game to end the season could end up being the most important regular season game MSU has played in decades.

[Catprint]

It is Thursday evening. I intended to write this update last night but the events of the evening precluded my writing. Beyond the appalling nature of the events, I have personal connections. My adopted daughter, age 30, comes from Ukraine. She still has family near Mariupol and in Kyiv. All of them are in danger and have no way to respond. It is a sad and devastating situation.

It seems like basketball is so trivial in comparison but life seems to go on regardless of the tragedy we might all see and face every day. And I know there is only so much emotional input we can handle as humans in any given situation. For any of you affected by this war or another more personal tragedy or sadness, I can only pray for the best outcome possible….

It was disappointing to see the Cats drop the game to EWU last Thursday. Frankly, from my perspective the “slow down” offense that coaches nationwide take on in the last 2-5 minutes when ahead by only a handful of points seems to be unproductive and results in more losses than wins. In another day, I thought about doing an in-depth analysis of a handful of teams in the Big Sky and how they handled the last 5 minutes of a game when ahead by less than 10 points. The work behind that analysis is significant and not likely to come to the forefront soon on my to-do list. I imagine someone has already done a better job.

On a fairly statistical view, it was clear the Cats played much more aggressively in the final few minutes of the Southern Utah game and that resulted in good shots and lots of free throws. Certainly appears to have proven by theory with a sampling of one! In any case, instead of sitting at 14-2 and 3 games ahead in the loss column with a #1 seed almost a given, we are 13-3 which is still a great result at this point in the season. Don’t get me wrong. I am very happy where the Cats are today but greedy. So let’s look at the last two weekends and the likelihood of a regular season championship and the #1 seed. The permutations are endless so I will concentrate on the one most probable and easiest to examine.

My take is simply that while a 4-0 or 3-1 final two weeks will give the Cats an undisputed #1 seed; the most likely scenario given the difficult set of teams we are playing is a 2-2 finish. So I will take that approach partly because it gives us something to debate and consider. I won’t look at a 0-4 finish or a 1-3 finish. Neither is likely but both have a high unlikelihood of the Cats winning the championship since we would lose to 2 of the top 4 teams.

For the sake of initial analysis, I am assuming we win the Sac State game and lose the Griz game. That leaves us at 1-1. The Sac State game seems the surest assumption. Why would I pick the Griz over the Cats? Well, it is a road game, the Griz will be fired up and they are powerful at home. Plus, frankly, it makes looking at the options more exciting.

Scenario #1

Cats go 2-2; Weber, UNC and SUU all lose at least one game.
This is the most positive scenario to consider as it leaves Bobcats at 15-5 in first place all alone. #1 seed!!

Scenario #2
Cats go 2-2; UNC wins out; Weber and SUU loses at least one game.
This is the simplest and worst scenario. UNC will be 15-5 tied with the Cats. UNC will win the #1 seed because they are 2-0 in head to head. End of discussion.

Scenario #3
Cats go 2-2; Weber wins out; UNC and SUU lose at least one game.

In my mind, this is a highly probably scenario. Weber only has 3 games and has the easiest road. This puts Weber and Cats tied at 15-5. It means at the best UNC and SUU are 14-6 and vying for 3rd or 4th place. One of them could easily be 13-7 having lost 2 of their final 4. This scenario is the worst option for getting the #1 seed. Follow my thoughts.
Weber plays SUU so they will have defeated them in the final game.
In the tiebreaker, MSU and Weber are 1-1 against each other so the tiebreaker will drop to records against the next tier teams. Those will be UNC, SUU, EWU and UM in no particular order. We will assume they follow in this order but it does not matter.
If MSU beats Sac and SUU but loses to UNC, then Weber is 1-1 against the Bears and Cats are 0-2. Weber gets #1 seed.
If MSU beats Sac and UNC but loses to SUU, then Weber and Cats are 1-1 against the Bears and the tiebreaker goes to the SUU head to head. Weber will be 2-0 and Cats 1-1 so Weber gets #1.
If Cats lose to Griz and Sac and beats UNC and SUU (highly unlikely), then UNC, SUU and UM head to heads are the same and it moves down the line all the way to the 9th place team where MSU is 2-0 against Idaho and Weber is 1-1. In this statistically unlikely scenario, the Cats get #1 seed.
Finally, in some bizarre scenario where Cats beat Griz and Sac, but lose to SUU and UNC, then the tie-breaker will move the Griz game where Cats are 2-0 and Weber 1-1. Cat’s get #1 seed.
So while there are technically two positive options for the Cats, these are statistical anomalies. We really need Weber to lose a game.

Scenario #4
Cats go 2-2; SUU wins out; UNC and Weber loses at least one game.

This option puts Cats at 15-5; SUU at 15-5; Weber at 14-6; and UNC at 14-6 (at best). Since SUU wins out in this scenario, it means Cats lose to SUU at home.
If Cats lose to Griz and SUU, and beat Sac and UNC, the head to head with SUU will be 1-1; next team down is Weber and 1-1 is both teams record so then down to UNC and 1-1 again and then when it gets to the Griz, SUU and MSU will be 1-1, then to EWU and Cats are 1-1 and SUU is 2-0 so SUU gets the #1 seed.
If Cats lose to UNC and SUU (Remember, SUU wins out in this scenario), then it gets dicey. Weber likely next team down and both SUU/MSU will be 1-1. Both SUU/MSU will be 0-2 against UNC. Then against the Griz, Cats will be 2-0 and SUU will be 1-1 and Cats get #1 seed.
If Cast lose to Griz and SUU, and beat UNC and Sac, then MSU will be 1-1 against UNC vs SUU at 0-2 and Cats will get #1 seed (regardless whether UNC, Weber or Griz) end up in third place.

Scenario #5 (I promise this is the last one)
Cats go 2-2; Weber and UNC win out; SUU loses one game

Why is this the last one? Because I am tired and because SUU and Weber can’t both win out since they play each other and I don’t believe it is possible for both SUU and UNC to win out. Technically, they could happen but it means both SUU and UNC beat both Montana teams and SUU beats Weber. Suppose anything could happen but that simply seems a real stretch.

This puts Cats, Weber and UNC at 15-5.
If Cats beat Griz and Sac and lose to SUU and UNC, then the head to head will be as follows
UNC – 3-1
Weber-2-2
Cats 1-3

So UNC gets the #1 seed.

It really doesn’t matter if the Cats beat SUU and Sac or beat SUU and Griz. The three team head-to-head is going to result in the Cats getting the #3 seed.

Oh ok, Scenario 6
Cats go 2-2; SUU and UNC win out to tie all three teams at 15-5.
3 team head-to-head
UNC – 4-0
SUU – 3-1
Cats – 1-3

See, I told you it was not worth it. Cats get #3 seed.

Now, why not skip all this nonsense and simply have the Cats go 4-0 or 3-1? While, for one, I like the mental exercise and second, the four games in 6 days is brutal and I think it will be very difficult to win three of them. Of course, if they do then this is all for naught.

Now, I wrote this while Thursday night games are being played and I did not look at the scores. Some of these scenarios may already bite the dust by the end of the evening. Oh well.

Go Cats.

[Catprint]

Ok, while I came up with all of this Monday evening on the couch, I did not write it up and post it in time. So UNC Bears can't stay the course at home and Scenarios #2, #5 and #6 are toast before the keyboard cools off. That is good as Cats could not get the #1 seed in any of those scenarios! Leaves a much better path at 2-2 in the final four games. See if the Griz can dispose of scenario #4 or they fall flat.

[MSU01]

Ok, while I came up with all of this Monday evening on the couch, I did not write it up and post it in time. So UNC Bears can't stay the course at home and Scenarios #2, #5 and #6 are toast before the keyboard cools off. That is good as Cats could not get the #1 seed in any of those scenarios! Leaves a much better path at 2-2 in the final four games. See if the Griz can dispose of scenario #4 or they fall flat.

The Griz did not dispose of Scenario #4, but Portland State has disposed of Scenario #3! Great night for MSU with UNC and Weber both going down.

[RickRund]

Ok, while I came up with all of this Monday evening on the couch, I did not write it up and post it in time. So UNC Bears can't stay the course at home and Scenarios #2, #5 and #6 are toast before the keyboard cools off. That is good as Cats could not get the #1 seed in any of those scenarios! Leaves a much better path at 2-2 in the final four games. See if the Griz can dispose of scenario #4 or they fall flat.

Our prayers are with the people of Ukraine...

[Catprint]

Ok, So if Cats beat SUU, then that eliminates scenario #1 and #4 so essentially Cats go 2-2 with one of the wins against SUU and Cats are #1. Best bet is beat SUU and Sac. But based on Griz performance tonight, not out of question Cats could win in Missoula.

[MSU01]

Ok, So if Cats beat SUU, then that eliminates scenario #1 and #4 so essentially Cats go 2-2 with one of the wins against SUU and Cats are #1. Best bet is beat SUU and Sac. But based on Griz performance tonight, not out of question Cats could win in Missoula.

If MSU goes 2-2 with wins against:

SUU and any other opponent, MSU clinches #1 seed and outright regular season title.
UM and Sac, MSU is outright champion unless SUU goes 3-0. MSU/SUU tiebreaker likely depends on whether UM or EWU finishes higher in the final standings.
UNC and Sac, MSU is outright champion unless SUU goes 3-0. MSU vs SUU tiebreaker for #1 comes down to whether UNC or EWU finishes higher in the final standings (advantage UNC as of today which benefits MSU due to UNC season sweep of SUU).
UM and UNC, MSU is outright champion unless SUU goes 3-0. MSU vs SUU tiebreaker goes in favor of MSU unless EWU leapfrogs both UNC and UM in the final standings.

[CatBot]

Great stuff here. I want the men to curb stomp the gris Sunday, and then the narrative will be: a win over SUU locks up the regular season title. It's hard to imagine having the conference championship secured with 2 games to go, but it's actually within reach.

At that point, we will likely mess with the rotation and rest some guys. Win or lose, I got no problem with that.

[MSU01]

Not much on the Saturday schedule with SUU off for the rest of the weekend and Cat/Griz being played on Sunday. UNC hosts Idaho, who has looked great at home lately but lost by 30 at Sac on Thursday. Weber travels to NAU needing a win to keep any hope of a #1 seed alive. NAU can be dangerous as evidenced by their upset of UM and near upset of MSU earlier this month, but is 0-3 since the MT trip and lost at home to Idaho State in Thursday.

[CelticCat]

Okay so MSU is just 1 game ahead of SUU, but obviously we play them tonight - big game here, if we win that will guarantee at least a share of the title. The best SUU will be able to finish would be 14-6, which is where the Cats would be if we win but lose the last 2. SUU has 2 other games left, one of them being Weber, and that's Weber's final game. Weber can finish 14-6 if they beat SUU, their final remaining game.

UNC can also finish 14-6 if they are able to beat UM and MSU on the road, they have 6 losses right now.

Beat SUU tonight and win one other game and it's outright. Beat SUU and it's at least a share. Let's clinch at least a share tonight!

[MSU01]

They did it, the path is clear! One more win and MSU are outright #1 champs. In a scenario we certainly hope does not happen they could potentially finish in a 2-way tie with UNC, Weber, or SUU and even possibly a 3-way tie with UNC and the winner of Weber/SUU. MSU wouldn't fare well in a tiebreaker with Weber or UNC in terms of tournament seeding.

[Catprint]

So great game tonight! Great effort by Xavier and the shot blockers! Seven blocked shots by the end of the game including one sequence of blocks and steals and blocks that was fascinating to watch! See it on the replay at the 3:00 minute mark left in the game.

Big Sky Conference champions sounds great! And it was so nice to celebrate after 20 years! However, we want the #1 seed. Why? Because likely the first round bottom six will be EWU vs ISU; PSU vs Idaho and Sac vs NAU (or Idaho). So seeds #2 and #3 get PSU and EWU in that order. Both of those teams are semi-hot. Eastern has won 4 out of 6 (inexplicitly lost to Sac State) and PSU has won three in a row. Given all things, I would like the Cats to face a 5-15 Sac State vs a 10-10 Eastern who has beat us once. Yes, I know you have to beat the best to be the best but an easier game on Thursday night sure is a better way to start the tournament (although I grant no team is easy and clearly anyone can beat any team on a given night).

So how to we get the #1 seed now that we are assured at least a tie for the title?

Easy Road
Beat Sac State on Thursday and we are #1 seed at 15-5 or better.

Semi-Easy Road
Lose to Sac State and beat UNC on Saturday - Still 15-5 and #1

Out of our control road - In SUU's and Gris's hand
Lose both games. SUU beats Weber and ISU; Gris beat UNC. WE are tied with SUU at 14-6; Weber and UNC both at 13-7; Win #1 seed based on 2-0 record against SUU.

Not Good #1
Lose both; Weber beats SUU; UNC beats the Gris. Three way tie for first. Tiebreaker is head to head record against each other
UNC 3-1
Weber 2-2
Cats 1-3 We get the #3 seed.

Not Good #2
Lose both; SUU beats Weber and ISU; UNC beats the Gris. Three way tie for first. Head to head tiebreaker.
UNC 4-0
Cats 2-2 Cats get #2 seed.
SUU 0-4

Not Good #3
Lose both; SUU beats Weber but loses to ISU; UNC beats Gris. Weber and SUU finish 13-7. UNC gets #1 seed based on 2-0 head to head.
UNC 14-6
MSU 14-6 Cats #2 seed

What I find add about odd about the first three "Not Good" scenarios is they all result in UNC winning a conference championship and a trophy and a #1 seed on our home court! What does the Big Sky do? Break out t-shirts again and distribute them on our home court? I assume so actually. Would almost be humiliating but suppose that is the way the ball can bounce. Just really odd.

Not Good #4
Lose both; Weber beats SUU; Gris beat UNC and Sac State. SUU beats ISU. Two way tie for first.
Weber 14-6
MSU 14-6 Cats get #2 seed
Head to head is tied. So then it goes to record against the third place team. SUU would be 13-7; UNC would be 13-7; Gris would be 13-7. So who is the third place team? First, it is head to head (always head to head tiebreaker first before going to record against first place team, etc.). In this scenario, UNC would be third place team based on 3-1 record (beat SUU twice). So then Weber gets #1 seed, because they are 1-1 against UNC and Cats are 0-2. BTW, there is a "Not Good #5" if Gris beat UNC but lose to Sac State but the same result. Got lazy at the end.

Because SUU and Weber play, there is no 4 way tie scenario like there was a week ago.

Now I don't expect us to lose both games but being a statistician, I always want to look at every mathematical option. Why? Just because.

Feel free to share with the Big Sky Commissioner in case they don't have the scenarios quite figured out yet. But if I am wrong, oh well.

Go Cats!

[CelticCat]

That would be super awkward to have UNC's trophy presentation in Bozeman just days after we cut down the nets at home. Has that ever happened? That seems crazy.