Men's Path to the Big Sky Championship

[WalkOn79]

Catprint, you make my head spin!! Just beat SAC and let's get this OVER with!!

[BobcatDel]

That would be super awkward to have UNC's trophy presentation in Bozeman just days after we cut down the nets at home. Has that ever happened? That seems crazy.

Watch out for clipboards flying into stands if they do…..or don’t.

[Joe Bobcat]

So great game tonight! Great effort by Xavier and the shot blockers! Seven blocked shots by the end of the game including one sequence of blocks and steals and blocks that was fascinating to watch! See it on the replay at the 3:00 minute mark left in the game.

Big Sky Conference champions sounds great! And it was so nice to celebrate after 20 years! However, we want the #1 seed. Why? Because likely the first round bottom six will be EWU vs ISU; PSU vs Idaho and Sac vs NAU (or Idaho). So seeds #2 and #3 get PSU and EWU in that order. Both of those teams are semi-hot. Eastern has won 4 out of 6 (inexplicitly lost to Sac State) and PSU has won three in a row. Given all things, I would like the Cats to face a 5-15 Sac State vs a 10-10 Eastern who has beat us once. Yes, I know you have to beat the best to be the best but an easier game on Thursday night sure is a better way to start the tournament (although I grant no team is easy and clearly anyone can beat any team on a given night).

So how to we get the #1 seed now that we are assured at least a tie for the title?

Easy Road
Beat Sac State on Thursday and we are #1 seed at 15-5 or better.

Semi-Easy Road
Lose to Sac State and beat UNC on Saturday - Still 15-5 and #1

Out of our control road - In SUU's and Gris's hand
Lose both games. SUU beats Weber and ISU; Gris beat UNC. WE are tied with SUU at 14-6; Weber and UNC both at 13-7; Win #1 seed based on 2-0 record against SUU.

Not Good #1
Lose both; Weber beats SUU; UNC beats the Gris. Three way tie for first. Tiebreaker is head to head record against each other
UNC 3-1
Weber 2-2
Cats 1-3 We get the #3 seed.

Not Good #2
Lose both; SUU beats Weber and ISU; UNC beats the Gris. Three way tie for first. Head to head tiebreaker.
UNC 4-0
Cats 2-2 Cats get #2 seed.
SUU 0-4

Not Good #3
Lose both; SUU beats Weber but loses to ISU; UNC beats Gris. Weber and SUU finish 13-7. UNC gets #1 seed based on 2-0 head to head.
UNC 14-6
MSU 14-6 Cats #2 seed

What I find add about odd about the first three "Not Good" scenarios is they all result in UNC winning a conference championship and a trophy and a #1 seed on our home court! What does the Big Sky do? Break out t-shirts again and distribute them on our home court? I assume so actually. Would almost be humiliating but suppose that is the way the ball can bounce. Just really odd.

Not Good #4
Lose both; Weber beats SUU; Gris beat UNC and Sac State. SUU beats ISU. Two way tie for first.
Weber 14-6
MSU 14-6 Cats get #2 seed
Head to head is tied. So then it goes to record against the third place team. SUU would be 13-7; UNC would be 13-7; Gris would be 13-7. So who is the third place team? First, it is head to head (always head to head tiebreaker first before going to record against first place team, etc.). In this scenario, UNC would be third place team based on 3-1 record (beat SUU twice). So then Weber gets #1 seed, because they are 1-1 against UNC and Cats are 0-2. BTW, there is a "Not Good #5" if Gris beat UNC but lose to Sac State but the same result. Got lazy at the end.

Because SUU and Weber play, there is no 4 way tie scenario like there was a week ago.

Now I don't expect us to lose both games but being a statistician, I always want to look at every mathematical option. Why? Just because.

Feel free to share with the Big Sky Commissioner in case they don't have the scenarios quite figured out yet. But if I am wrong, oh well.

Go Cats!

Thanks for figuring out all those scenarios but as thorough as you were you left out the very best road to the #1 seed.
That road would be the one where MSU Bobcats win both of their remaining 2 conference games.
Go Cats finish this thing like the champions you are!

[wbtfg]

That would be super awkward to have UNC's trophy presentation in Bozeman just days after we cut down the nets at home. Has that ever happened? That seems crazy.

Bruh...why would you even put that out in the universe?

[CelticCat]

That would be super awkward to have UNC's trophy presentation in Bozeman just days after we cut down the nets at home. Has that ever happened? That seems crazy.

Bruh...why would you even put that out in the universe?

Hey now, Catprint did it first I just expanded upon it:

What I find add about odd about the first three "Not Good" scenarios is they all result in UNC winning a conference championship and a trophy and a #1 seed on our home court! What does the Big Sky do? Break out t-shirts again and distribute them on our home court? I assume so actually. Would almost be humiliating but suppose that is the way the ball can bounce. Just really odd.

[Catprint]

The universe is neutral. And I was only laying out the statistical options so two wins is not a scenario to get #1 seed. Sometimes numbers are dry or unappealing.

Not happy at half tonight. Need to see more energy. Sac state is shooting over 50% from three the last four games. Hard to believe. One game they took 29 threes and won.

[MSU01]

Moderators, lock this thread!

[CelticCat]

What a season! Outright champs, 22 wins and one game left to go.

[MSU01]

What a season! Outright champs, 22 wins and one game left to go.

*23 wins

[catatac]

Moderators, lock this thread!

Or maybe we could tweak the title and it could morph into..... path to winning the tourney and getting a decent seed in the big dance.