In the chart below, I have listed the score for each of six categories. Each team gets a score between 0 and 5 in each category. Here is what I have chosen and why
Overall Record – Have to give some credence to the overall consistency of a team. 20 or more wins gets a team a score of 5; less than 10 wins only 1. I assigned a weight of only 10% to this category because what I team did in November/December really has very little to do with tournament performance.
Last 10 games - 8 wins gets you 5 points; 7 wins 4; 6 and 5 wins 3; 4 and 3 wins 2 points. I have given 20% weight to this category. The last third of play is the engine of predictive success.
Last 5 games – Ok, why did I look at last 10 and then add last 5 as a weighted category? And why did I give it 30% weight? Because I can.
I just figured the last five games can really give a team a boost and if the last 10 is the engine, the last 5 is the fuel. In this category, MSU, SUU, PSU and Sac are the most dangerous teams.Margin of Victory Last 10 – I figured MOV is important because one team could just squeak out some victories while another team beats down 3-5 teams and has a much stronger resume based on margin of victory. The MOV gets a 20% weight
Win Streak – What are you taking right in to the tournament in terms of a winning streak. I only give it a 10% weight
Experience – Totally arbitrary. Looked at team’s tournament experience; number of seniors; experience of the coach. Not a lot of research went into this category. Just looking at some rosters and thinking about last year’s tournament.
THE CHART
(sorry it is so small. just have to zoom out your browser. (but don't zoom out too far or you lose part of the chart) Still struggling to get the link correct so you can click on it and view in another tab. Any help?)
So the result? Well not surprising the top three scores are MSU, Southern Utah and Northern Colorado – seeds #1, #2 and #3. MSU’s score is the highest based on the high score in 5 of the 6 categories. We are 8-2 in the last 10 games and 4-1 in the last 5. We also have best margin of victory in the last 10 games which was somewhat of a surprise given all the close games the Cats have won.
What is a surprise? While, the Gris score is pretty low and reflects how poorly they have been playing as of late. They actually have a score lower than all but 3 other teams. The other score to consider is Sac State’s score of 2.5 which is almost as good as Weber’s score. Sac State can certainly be a surprise team with a couple of victories. Unfortunately, one of those would have to be against the Cats. While MSU beat Sac twice, it was by a combination of 8 total points. Both games went down to the last meeting.
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Also, it is not a surprise that PSU and EWU have strong scores. Both teams have ended their seasons on an upward trend. I would particularly be leery of Portland State in the second round and maybe a semifinal game.
One final comment. While I just concocted this scoring system based on what I think is right, the scoring system follows the bracket with EWU, PSU and Sac winning their first round game; MSU, UNC, SUU and Weber winning their quarterfinal game; MSU and SUU winning their semi-final and MSU winning it all. There you go! This is how it will go. Do the numbers ever lie? I will let you decide. But that’s why they call it March Madness! Never know what buzzer beater will create the next upset. Go CATS!
