TomCat88 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:34 am
It's a blast to do, but hardly anyone is good at projecting how good a college player will be in the pros in any sport. There are those that are relatively good compared to others, but even they aren't what I would consider great. Only about 20% of players picked in the 2nd round are still active after 5-10 years. Lottery picks are at 75% and non-lottery 1st round picks around 40%.
There are about 450 players on NBA rosters. About 60 players are drafted each year and the average career in the NBA is about 4.5 years.
Guessing where someone will be drafted has a better success rate than guessing how good they will be.
It's really hard to project who's going to be good and how good once they get to the pros, especially in the NBA. It's not all that hard to predict who is going to the pros, particularly the NBA. The short, blunt answer is basically no one. The NBA is the hardest professional league in America to break into. The only thing harder than playing in the NBA is being an NFL kicker just because the spots are so limited year to year.
In the NBA, it's as simple as this: you have to have an elite NBA body or elite NBA athleticism or you have to have an elite NBA skill. And by elite, I mean you have to be one of the 300 best people at that basketball skill in the world. Did you know the average height for an NBA player is 6-foot-7.5? The average NBA player is 6-8, 210-220 pounds
I love Raequan Battle as much as any player I've ever watched in the Big Sky Conference. If you missed this story, you should read it:
FOR HIS PEOPLE: Battle is lone Native American man playing in Big Dance
https://skylinesportsmt.com/for-his-peo ... big-dance/
That said, I am zero percent surprised Battle is a fringe NBA player at best. He does not have an NBA body because he is so slight. He is almost an NBA athlete, but remember...NBA athletes are among the greatest pure athletes on earth. And as mentioned above, he has no elite NBA skill. His elite basketball skill is as a scorer. He is nowhere near the top 300 scorers in the world. He was not even in the top 25 scorers in college basketball last season.
If he was 6-6, 210 instead of 6-4, 195, and he could play defense like an NBA wing....and/or he was a knockdown 3-point shooter, he would be an NBA player. He's a phenomenal athlete and a gifted scorer. But neither of those skills is Top 300 in the world.
PS when you apply this analytical formula to Dillon Jones, it's a big of a mystery to me how he was drafted in the first round. He does have two borderline elite skills - he is arguably a good to great NBA caliber rebounder...and he is for sure elite as a 6-foot-5, 245-pound point guard because, well, he's the only one. But he nowhere close to plays defense at an NBA level and he can't shoot. He will be a fascinating case study.
Here's an interesting statistic I found while researching to help edit this Houghton story (
https://skylinesportsmt.com/last-of-a-d ... ba-chance/): there are exactly 100 players in the NBA who weigh more than 240 pounds....and a total of six of them are shorter than 6-foot-9. Dillon Jones joins Admiral Scofield, PJ Tucker and Ish Wainwright as the only players who are 6-foot-5, 245 pounds in the entire NBA. The ultimate outlier of this is Zion Williamson, who is 6-foot-6 and listed at 296 pounds
The good news for DJones is he was drafted by an organization that is obsessed with development, loves unorthodox players and has a brilliant coach who will find a way to use Jones. If he can maximize his chances, he has a shot.