I think we got an unlucky draw

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I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by aucat » Sat Mar 22, 2025 1:34 pm

Looking at some of the other women's games, notably 15 seed against 2 seed NC State, I'm thinking we got a bit unlucky with our draw. The reason I say that is because I have not seen another team that brings the constant full court pressure that OSU brings. We had so many turnovers and OSU converted most of those turnovers into breakaway layups. Yet we still lost by only 20 points.

Maybe if we had played a few teams with very athletic players who ran full court pressure the entire game we would have been more ready to handle it. Frankly, if we had drawn a team like 2 seed NC State I think we would have given a good showing just like Vermont gave though they faded late in the game. Anyhoo, very proud of our women’s team and the season they had!



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by imacat » Sat Mar 22, 2025 1:51 pm

I am looking forward to watching the OSU - Tennessee game.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Sat Mar 22, 2025 2:38 pm

You could say that Ohio State got a bad draw, getting the nation’s leader in steals. They certainly had prepared, but we definitely bothered them at times. If we saw stronger competition more frequently we’d be better prepared — I know Coach Bin strives for competitive pre-conference matchups. That’s the place to learn because they still have to win their own conference plus the tournament.

When we took the lead and their coach got the T, he was really looking worried. He kept whining about that foul call, even though it was clearly called correctly. He was simply finding an issue to go berserk on to inject some fire into his team. It worked.

I thought the play and the stats were very revealing — the players that gave them the most trouble were Esmeralda Morales and Natalie Picton who combined for 32 of 51 points and were the only two of our players to shoot over 50%. Marah Dykstra at 4 of 9 with 8 points was our only other significant offensive threat.

Both Esme and Natalie absolutely schooled their guards a number of times on creating separation to shoot or getting to the basket. The color commentator was really paying attention. Natalie’s move leading to her layin over their big post player was simply eye-popping. Even the Big Ten crowd seemed to approve. The play is included in the highlights clip on ESPN. If you can, watch it slower (or stop it) and watch her feet. (@AFCAT maybe you could give us a few stills from that sequence). Her feet were in the air as much as on the ground. As I was re-watching I remembered that Natalie was a gymnast and I think was in ballet — a good recruiting check box. Perhaps a few more plays can be introduced to take advantage of her mad skills in “ball dancing.”

They looked like they belonged this time!



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by aucat » Sat Mar 22, 2025 3:30 pm

Congratulations to SDSU women for winning their NCAA game against number 7 seed Oklahoma State. SDSU looked pretty similar to MSU. They are very well coached. As someone else said, this is what is possible for our program. We are moving in that direction.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:03 pm

SDSU is a good model. I think Leon was there when they started the climb. I think it was last year that we beat them in Brookings. They have been squarely on that mid-major poll for quite a few years now. That’s why I made the comment when we got on that poll that it’s where a lot of upsets come from. If we keep winning and get a little higher seeds and don’t have to play on a Big Ten home court, that will be us winning in the foreseeable future.

For now the road is clear. Toughen up the pre-season a little more, start winning the Big Sky games and tournament convincingly. Keep winning and climb that mid-major poll. Exciting stuff.

Coach Bin and team — you are the greatest!



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by 4KornerKat » Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:06 pm

I think they will always be "unlucky" draws, unless we get to a point where the Big Sky can earn some respect nationally. The Big Sky Summit League challenge is a great start, but Big Sky teams top to bottom need to perform better in these games. South Dakota State has the benefit of some solid in- conference matchups, along with some historical success in the tournament. It probably takes several years in a row of strong tournament performances, along with in conference competition stepping up, to get to the 10-11 seed conversation.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by MSU01 » Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:47 pm

4KornerKat wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:06 pm
I think they will always be "unlucky" draws, unless we get to a point where the Big Sky can earn some respect nationally. The Big Sky Summit League challenge is a great start, but Big Sky teams top to bottom need to perform better in these games. South Dakota State has the benefit of some solid in- conference matchups, along with some historical success in the tournament. It probably takes several years in a row of strong tournament performances, along with in conference competition stepping up, to get to the 10-11 seed conversation.
MSU also needs to get to the point where it can schedule more games and win some games against power conference opponents. SDSU beat three NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play (Creighton, Oregon, Ball State), beat another Big 10 team in Wisconsin, and also played Texas, Duke, and Georgia Tech. MSU's only games against NCAA teams were against Utah (L) and FGCU (W). It's easy to see where the improvement still needs to happen although SDSU probably has an easier job of scheduling geographically speaking.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by AFCAT » Mon Mar 24, 2025 12:08 pm

Bobcat4Ever wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 2:38 pm
You could say that Ohio State got a bad draw, getting the nation’s leader in steals. They certainly had prepared, but we definitely bothered them at times. If we saw stronger competition more frequently we’d be better prepared — I know Coach Bin strives for competitive pre-conference matchups. That’s the place to learn because they still have to win their own conference plus the tournament.

When we took the lead and their coach got the T, he was really looking worried. He kept whining about that foul call, even though it was clearly called correctly. He was simply finding an issue to go berserk on to inject some fire into his team. It worked.

I thought the play and the stats were very revealing — the players that gave them the most trouble were Esmeralda Morales and Natalie Picton who combined for 32 of 51 points and were the only two of our players to shoot over 50%. Marah Dykstra at 4 of 9 with 8 points was our only other significant offensive threat.

Both Esme and Natalie absolutely schooled their guards a number of times on creating separation to shoot or getting to the basket. The color commentator was really paying attention. Natalie’s move leading to her layin over their big post player was simply eye-popping. Even the Big Ten crowd seemed to approve. The play is included in the highlights clip on ESPN. If you can, watch it slower (or stop it) and watch her feet. (@AFCAT maybe you could give us a few stills from that sequence). Her feet were in the air as much as on the ground. As I was re-watching I remembered that Natalie was a gymnast and I think was in ballet — a good recruiting check box. Perhaps a few more plays can be introduced to take advantage of her mad skills in “ball dancing.”

They looked like they belonged this time!
I'm guessing you are writing about this one?



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by RUACAT » Mon Mar 24, 2025 1:48 pm

AFCAT wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 12:08 pm
Bobcat4Ever wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 2:38 pm
You could say that Ohio State got a bad draw, getting the nation’s leader in steals. They certainly had prepared, but we definitely bothered them at times. If we saw stronger competition more frequently we’d be better prepared — I know Coach Bin strives for competitive pre-conference matchups. That’s the place to learn because they still have to win their own conference plus the tournament.

When we took the lead and their coach got the T, he was really looking worried. He kept whining about that foul call, even though it was clearly called correctly. He was simply finding an issue to go berserk on to inject some fire into his team. It worked.

I thought the play and the stats were very revealing — the players that gave them the most trouble were Esmeralda Morales and Natalie Picton who combined for 32 of 51 points and were the only two of our players to shoot over 50%. Marah Dykstra at 4 of 9 with 8 points was our only other significant offensive threat.

Both Esme and Natalie absolutely schooled their guards a number of times on creating separation to shoot or getting to the basket. The color commentator was really paying attention. Natalie’s move leading to her layin over their big post player was simply eye-popping. Even the Big Ten crowd seemed to approve. The play is included in the highlights clip on ESPN. If you can, watch it slower (or stop it) and watch her feet. (@AFCAT maybe you could give us a few stills from that sequence). Her feet were in the air as much as on the ground. As I was re-watching I remembered that Natalie was a gymnast and I think was in ballet — a good recruiting check box. Perhaps a few more plays can be introduced to take advantage of her mad skills in “ball dancing.”

They looked like they belonged this time!
I'm guessing you are writing about this one?

Watched it at regular speed a couple of times and then paused it at the beginning. Slid back and forth between the 0-2 second mark. Crazy footwork.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by Bocephus » Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:12 pm

I think SDSU has an unlucky draw tonight.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:42 pm

RUACAT wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 1:48 pm
AFCAT wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 12:08 pm

I'm guessing you are writing about this one?

Watched it at regular speed a couple of times and then paused it at the beginning. Slid back and forth between the 0-2 second mark. Crazy footwork.
That’s the one! That’s just unbelievable. I remember a play late in the year when Natalie came along the baseline and under the basket from the right. After she got just past the basket, she made a crazy u-turn and went back under the basket for a reverse right-handed layin. I’d been wondering ever since how she made a u-turn in no space, leaving the defender continuing the wrong way. I see now. Ballet / gymnast expert foot movements and balance. Dancing with the basketball. Mad skill.

I’d like to see a good highlight on Natalie, that includes her evolution to that footwork. Without a good camera angle and slo-mo it can almost go unnoticed. The Ohio St. player is probably in for therapy on dislocated ankles. It looked like Natalie had her beaten one move earlier, but threw in an extra one just because she could!

Even the color announcer gave her kudos for the move, and especially the 5’5” finish over their tall post. Well done, Natalie!



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by MSU01 » Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:50 pm

Bocephus wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:12 pm
I think SDSU has an unlucky draw tonight.
I get why UConn is a 2 seed on paper but based on their play, UConn is most definitely not a 2 seed. I'm really hoping for a USC/UConn regional final, that might be the best game ever in the women's tournament that wasn't a Final Four game.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by Bobcat4Ever » Mon Mar 24, 2025 3:05 pm

MSU01 wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:50 pm
Bocephus wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:12 pm
I think SDSU has an unlucky draw tonight.
I get why UConn is a 2 seed on paper but based on their play, UConn is most definitely not a 2 seed. I'm really hoping for a USC/UConn regional final, that might be the best game ever in the women's tournament that wasn't a Final Four game.
They may be the best #2 seed ever. I picked UConn to win it all. I think you’ll get your wish for the regional final.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by tetoncat » Mon Mar 24, 2025 4:59 pm

Bobcat4Ever wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 3:05 pm
MSU01 wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:50 pm
Bocephus wrote:
Mon Mar 24, 2025 2:12 pm
I think SDSU has an unlucky draw tonight.
I get why UConn is a 2 seed on paper but based on their play, UConn is most definitely not a 2 seed. I'm really hoping for a USC/UConn regional final, that might be the best game ever in the women's tournament that wasn't a Final Four game.
They may be the best #2 seed ever. I picked UConn to win it all. I think you’ll get your wish for the regional final.
Likely because women's tourney rarely has seeds below 4 in those final 8 and usually 1 and 2 in semis


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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by BobcatDel » Tue Mar 25, 2025 9:51 am

MSU01 wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:47 pm
4KornerKat wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:06 pm
I think they will always be "unlucky" draws, unless we get to a point where the Big Sky can earn some respect nationally. The Big Sky Summit League challenge is a great start, but Big Sky teams top to bottom need to perform better in these games. South Dakota State has the benefit of some solid in- conference matchups, along with some historical success in the tournament. It probably takes several years in a row of strong tournament performances, along with in conference competition stepping up, to get to the 10-11 seed conversation.
MSU also needs to get to the point where it can schedule more games and win some games against power conference opponents. SDSU beat three NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play (Creighton, Oregon, Ball State), beat another Big 10 team in Wisconsin, and also played Texas, Duke, and Georgia Tech. MSU's only games against NCAA teams were against Utah (L) and FGCU (W). It's easy to see where the improvement still needs to happen although SDSU probably has an easier job of scheduling geographically speaking.
Re SDSU success against “up conference” teams, we’ve noted their non-conference schedule success and wins in the NCAA tourney….but that pales in comparison to their WNIT performance where they stand at 13 wins vs 4 losses against a plethora of Power Conference schools. They were the WNIT Champions in 2022. Their history has earned them the right to be mentioned in discussions as higher seeds. The Lady Bobcats can get there…..continuing to strengthen early season schedules will help as others have noted.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by tetoncat » Tue Mar 25, 2025 11:39 am

BobcatDel wrote:
Tue Mar 25, 2025 9:51 am
MSU01 wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:47 pm
4KornerKat wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:06 pm
I think they will always be "unlucky" draws, unless we get to a point where the Big Sky can earn some respect nationally. The Big Sky Summit League challenge is a great start, but Big Sky teams top to bottom need to perform better in these games. South Dakota State has the benefit of some solid in- conference matchups, along with some historical success in the tournament. It probably takes several years in a row of strong tournament performances, along with in conference competition stepping up, to get to the 10-11 seed conversation.
MSU also needs to get to the point where it can schedule more games and win some games against power conference opponents. SDSU beat three NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play (Creighton, Oregon, Ball State), beat another Big 10 team in Wisconsin, and also played Texas, Duke, and Georgia Tech. MSU's only games against NCAA teams were against Utah (L) and FGCU (W). It's easy to see where the improvement still needs to happen although SDSU probably has an easier job of scheduling geographically speaking.
Re SDSU success against “up conference” teams, we’ve noted their non-conference schedule success and wins in the NCAA tourney….but that pales in comparison to their WNIT performance where they stand at 13 wins vs 4 losses against a plethora of Power Conference schools. They were the WNIT Champions in 2022. Their history has earned them the right to be mentioned in discussions as higher seeds. The Lady Bobcats can get there…..continuing to strengthen early season schedules will help as others have noted.

Does strengthening the schedule help if you don't win those games? The perception of a weak conference seems to make you go nearly undefeated. Playing 3 or 4 more power 4 games and losing them seems like it would have moved Cats to 14 or 15 this year.


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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by aucat » Tue Mar 25, 2025 11:55 am

Well the “reward” for SDSU was losing by 34 points last night to UConn.



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by BobcatDel » Tue Mar 25, 2025 3:29 pm

tetoncat wrote:
Tue Mar 25, 2025 11:39 am
BobcatDel wrote:
Tue Mar 25, 2025 9:51 am
MSU01 wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:47 pm
4KornerKat wrote:
Sat Mar 22, 2025 4:06 pm
I think they will always be "unlucky" draws, unless we get to a point where the Big Sky can earn some respect nationally. The Big Sky Summit League challenge is a great start, but Big Sky teams top to bottom need to perform better in these games. South Dakota State has the benefit of some solid in- conference matchups, along with some historical success in the tournament. It probably takes several years in a row of strong tournament performances, along with in conference competition stepping up, to get to the 10-11 seed conversation.
MSU also needs to get to the point where it can schedule more games and win some games against power conference opponents. SDSU beat three NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play (Creighton, Oregon, Ball State), beat another Big 10 team in Wisconsin, and also played Texas, Duke, and Georgia Tech. MSU's only games against NCAA teams were against Utah (L) and FGCU (W). It's easy to see where the improvement still needs to happen although SDSU probably has an easier job of scheduling geographically speaking.
Re SDSU success against “up conference” teams, we’ve noted their non-conference schedule success and wins in the NCAA tourney….but that pales in comparison to their WNIT performance where they stand at 13 wins vs 4 losses against a plethora of Power Conference schools. They were the WNIT Champions in 2022. Their history has earned them the right to be mentioned in discussions as higher seeds. The Lady Bobcats can get there…..continuing to strengthen early season schedules will help as others have noted.

Does strengthening the schedule help if you don't win those games? The perception of a weak conference seems to make you go nearly undefeated. Playing 3 or 4 more power 4 games and losing them seems like it would have moved Cats to 14 or 15 this year.
Well I guess we could schedule with that thought…….the “fear of losing” ruining our chances of getting a better seed or lowering our seed. A real possibility. On the other hand you can see that the best seed we are ever going to get is probably a 13 seed with a 30-3 record that is the best in the entire history of the Big Sky. IMO we should look at something different if we want to be recognized at a higher level and expect a higher seed. Or we should all just accept that “hey this is our limit…accept it”.

I also believe that “steel sharpens steel”. If we want to play at that level then we need to play teams at that level. If we want to recruit at a higher level, playing at a higher level against higher level opponents gets you that exposure. Success isn’t happening overnight but it will come. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Bobcat team this year could have won a couple games against up conference opponents….and I believe those games on the resume may have helped with the seeding.

I’ve enjoyed following the SDSU teams for a number of years because I have friends there, travel there on occasion, and those native SD folks enticed me with friendly “competitive” banter. But let’s look back….SDSU stepped up to D1 from being highly successful DII in 2004. They couldn’t even participate in the D1 tourney for several years. So what did they do….well they went out and played 6 to 7 upper level opponents every year! 2004-2005 proceeded to beat Kentucky, Okla St, Alabama and lose to OSU, USC, Purdue. 2005-2006 defeat Nebraska, Colo St, Wisconsin, Alabama and lose to Marquette and Colorado. 2006-2007 beat USC, Virginia, Kansas, Colorado, Alabama and lose to Marquette, Baylor, Ark St, Missouri.

Do you think they feared losing to upper conference level opponents while making the D1 transition? Do you think this may have been a major stepping stone to becoming one of the best mid-major WBB teams in the country? Do you think it made them understand what they needed to do to compete at the next level? Do you think they better understood the type of player they needed to bring in to consistently win at the D1 level?

Just some observations from an old curmudgeon who loves our Lady Bobcat team and has the highest respect for what Coach Bin and our staff has done sustaining a successful program to be proud of!



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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by AFCAT » Tue Mar 25, 2025 3:56 pm

aucat wrote:
Tue Mar 25, 2025 11:55 am
Well the “reward” for SDSU was losing by 34 points last night to UConn.
…and the money the conference will receive from SDSU having played in multiple games in the tourney.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lindseyeda ... t-payouts/


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Re: I think we got an unlucky draw

Post by BobcatDel » Tue Mar 25, 2025 4:09 pm

AFCAT wrote:
Tue Mar 25, 2025 3:56 pm
aucat wrote:
Tue Mar 25, 2025 11:55 am
Well the “reward” for SDSU was losing by 34 points last night to UConn.
…and the money the conference will receive from SDSU having played in multiple games in the tourney.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lindseyeda ... t-payouts/
Thanks for sharing! Quite informative. There are some real issues and gaps that need to be closed more quickly. I am surprised there aren’t already more lawsuits on WBB revenue sharing on this considering the level of fan support, ad revenue, TV viewership last year with Caitlin Clark playing.



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