The Griz are 1-13

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Cledus
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Posts: 5680
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Location: Billings Heights

Re: The Griz are 1-13

Post by Cledus » Wed Dec 17, 2025 5:30 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 5:23 pm
Cledus wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 5:14 pm
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 3:41 pm
Cledus wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 1:46 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 8:14 am
OldGriz wrote:
Tue Dec 16, 2025 10:13 pm
catatac wrote:
Tue Dec 16, 2025 9:03 pm
In road playoff games, with the last win vs James Madison in 2008. That's crazy. In Bobby's own words, "Winning is hard. Football is a hard game. If it was easy, they'd call it soccer." Now, let's add to that. So winning is hard. Winning on the road is even harder. Winning on the road in the playoffs is even harder. Winning on the road in the SEMI's in the playoffs is even harder. Winning on the road in the semi's, against your bitter rival, is even harder. Winning on the road in the semis against your rival, when they've already proven to be really good since they beat you in your house a month prior... let's just say they have themselves a bit of a challenge on their hands. Not guaranteeing a win by any means, but damn it's going to be tough for them. This will be the craziest, most disruptive environment they've ever played in. I'll be really interested to see if Ay Yat can handle it.
What are the Cats … 1-7 or something like that? Road playoff games are tough.
MSU is 2-7. Has beaten NDSU '76 and SHSU '21 on the road. Lost to McNeese State, No. Iowa, App. State*, SHSU, NDSU*, NDSU*, and SDSU*. * - 4 Nat'l champions.

Yes, road games are tough. UM is due to win one.
The odds of hitting heads in a coin toss never change no matter how many previous flips were tails. Likewise, um's past road record may be bad but that doesn't improve their chances of winning this time. Smash that like button and follow me for more can't miss statistics.
I like the coin toss thing, but how does it relate to the game that has many more input variables and outcome probabilities
The idea that um will win because "they're due" is the gambler's fallacy no matter what variables and inputs are included. It's also the gambler's fallacy to say that MSU will win because Vigen's home record is 39-2, and all the other historical statistics given.

Every objective analysis done by people here point to an MSU win, and I agree. I always thought MSU will win because they're the better team, and I don't need those analyses to convince me. But they do give me something to hang my hat on. I think MSU wins going away by 10+ but what has happened in the past has no bearing on Saturday's outcome.
I was just trying to build up Old Griz. I think that's all he's looking for. Notice he didn't reply?
Gotcha. *Cledus recalibrates his sarcasm detector*
:suds:


UM is the university equivalent of Axe Body Spray and essential oils.

OldGriz
BobcatNation Team Captain
Posts: 449
Joined: Mon Nov 20, 2023 2:22 pm

Re: The Griz are 1-13

Post by OldGriz » Wed Dec 17, 2025 5:38 pm

TomCat88 wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 5:23 pm
Cledus wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 5:14 pm
cats2506 wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 3:41 pm
Cledus wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 1:46 pm
TomCat88 wrote:
Wed Dec 17, 2025 8:14 am
OldGriz wrote:
Tue Dec 16, 2025 10:13 pm
catatac wrote:
Tue Dec 16, 2025 9:03 pm
In road playoff games, with the last win vs James Madison in 2008. That's crazy. In Bobby's own words, "Winning is hard. Football is a hard game. If it was easy, they'd call it soccer." Now, let's add to that. So winning is hard. Winning on the road is even harder. Winning on the road in the playoffs is even harder. Winning on the road in the SEMI's in the playoffs is even harder. Winning on the road in the semi's, against your bitter rival, is even harder. Winning on the road in the semis against your rival, when they've already proven to be really good since they beat you in your house a month prior... let's just say they have themselves a bit of a challenge on their hands. Not guaranteeing a win by any means, but damn it's going to be tough for them. This will be the craziest, most disruptive environment they've ever played in. I'll be really interested to see if Ay Yat can handle it.
What are the Cats … 1-7 or something like that? Road playoff games are tough.
MSU is 2-7. Has beaten NDSU '76 and SHSU '21 on the road. Lost to McNeese State, No. Iowa, App. State*, SHSU, NDSU*, NDSU*, and SDSU*. * - 4 Nat'l champions.

Yes, road games are tough. UM is due to win one.
The odds of hitting heads in a coin toss never change no matter how many previous flips were tails. Likewise, um's past road record may be bad but that doesn't improve their chances of winning this time. Smash that like button and follow me for more can't miss statistics.
I like the coin toss thing, but how does it relate to the game that has many more input variables and outcome probabilities
The idea that um will win because "they're due" is the gambler's fallacy no matter what variables and inputs are included. It's also the gambler's fallacy to say that MSU will win because Vigen's home record is 39-2, and all the other historical statistics given.

Every objective analysis done by people here point to an MSU win, and I agree. I always thought MSU will win because they're the better team, and I don't need those analyses to convince me. But they do give me something to hang my hat on. I think MSU wins going away by 10+ but what has happened in the past has no bearing on Saturday's outcome.
I was just trying to build up Old Griz. I think that's all he's looking for. Notice he didn't reply?
I’ve spent too much time on Fremont Street and have learned the hard way. But it still sounded good, Tom. Thanks.



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