Everyone has a point of view. I get that as Cats fans we want to look at all the “data” that suggests/hints/points to the Cats winning on Saturday. But I take some issue with @MrGoodKat ’s data points. Not that they are not true. They are indeed true and factual. But I contend, as does @OldGriz, that they simply don’t matter. Here is my list of what matters and what doesn’t matter for Saturday’s Brawl 2.0.
What Doesn’t Matter on Saturday
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1) The leader of the Brawl historical record
2) The leader of the last 20 years of Brawl history.
3) The leader of the last 7 years of The Brawl history.
4) The winner of the last Brawl.
5) The number of games Bobby Hauck has won in Bozeman.
6) Brent Vigens record as the coach of the Bobcats
7) Brent Vigens record in the playoffs.
8 ) The Cats home record in the last 45 games
9) The lack of a road team win in the last 8 years in the semi-finals
10) The Griz have not played in a hostile environment this year
11) The Griz have only one road playoff victory all-time.
12) Whether it is or is not more difficult statistically to beat a team twice in the same year.
13) That the Cats score higher on 8 out of 11 PFF measures.
14) That either team has a higher points per game on offense; lower points per game on defense; higher margin of victory; more rushing yards per game; fewer rushing yards allowed per game; ad nauseum.
15) Home field advantage with regard to fan noise and false starts. In fact, the data points that the Cats have WAY more false starts in the playoffs than their opponents (8 to 1 by my count). (Also, see What Matters)
16) The betting odds
17) The over/under
18) Who FCS experts to pick to win.
19) Sagarin, Massey, SI+, ESPN Power Index or any other measure of which team is better.
20) What any fan on eGris or bobcat nation thinks or says about who will win the game
21) The weather (it may matter in some games with some teams but not in this game with these two teams. Wind, snow and cold will affect both teams equally.)
22) The number of Cats branded clothing I wear to the game on Saturday.
Why Doesn’t it Matter?
All of these items (and a hundred more) are only evidence of past performance. As every perspective of any mutual fund says; “Past Performance is not indicative or a guarantee of Future Performance.” In aggregate, the past is only predictive of who would win a certain number of games if 100 games were played. They have NO definitive predictive value on any one game – ZERO.
This is where I agree with @TomCat88 in some other posts he has done. Stats and past performance only give us information in a hypothetical multiple game match up - 7 games; 20 games; 100 games. They are of no value in any single game. They DO NOT say there is a 60% chance of winning any particular game. Only that if 100 games were played, Team A would win about 60 of them. This is why betting is a fools errand.
We only need to take one recent example. Team A is 12-0. Team A has beaten every team by a substantial margin. Team A has won over a dozen national championships. Team A has been in 15 out of the last 16 semi-final games. Team A is the overwhelming favorite to win the national championship. Team A has already beaten 6 national ranked teams; more than any other team in the country. Team A has beaten Team B handily. In the rematch game, Team A scores on the first play of their first possession with an 80-yard pass play. Team A scores on a Pick-6. Team A scores on a Punt Return. Team A intercepts Team B 5 times (5 TIMES!). Team A stops Team B on downs twice late in the game…. Ok, you get it. In a 100 games, NDSU will win around 95, maybe 98 of them. Illinois state will win 2 or 4 and ONE game out of the hundred will be so bizarre that almost any statistical analysis makes no sense. The NDSU-Illinois State playoff game was that one bizarre game on the field. Right now every NDSU fan who had already purchased airline tickets; made hotel reservations and put in for vacation is sitting at home and asking what happened? EVERY. SINGLE. PAST. PERFORMANCE. INDICATOR. was on their side. Every single fact, every single FCS expert; every single oddsmaker; every more than casual FCS fan knew NDSU was going to win. It was a fact. Alas, it didn’t happen because…
What Does Matter
So what does matter on Saturday. Well, mostly things none of us have any control over and some of which no one has control over.
1) Which players are injured or sick and cannot play or are playing at substantially less than 100% full strength.
2) Which players get injured in the game and cannot return.
3) Whether the players and the team are over-confident; confident; unsure or intimidated by the opponent and/or the moment.
4) The pure emotion, energy and fortitude of individual players and their ability to play at the highest level at any particular time in the game.
5) The coaching staff of each team and how they draw up a game plan to contain the other team’s offense and to score points when they have the ball.
6) The referee’s decision to call or not all a penalty on what could be a crucial play. Yes, referee’s do make a difference. In close games; in evenly matched games; a penalty at a critical moment matters.
7) Momentum (Karma? Home Field) built through a series of events (like a Pick-6; 4th down stop, etc.) can change a player’s or multiple players’ perspective on whether they can win the game and could result in stronger or weaker responses in a given sequence or series of plays.
8 ) Simple good old-fashioned luck. The ball bounces where it may. Sometimes a fumble just lays on the ground and an offensive lineman is right there and falls on it. Sometimes like in last year’s semi, the snap bounces off the QB’s hands, falls to the ground and bounces right back into his hands allowing for a 43-yard touchdown run. Sometime the tipped pass falls into the DB’s hands; sometimes not. Yes, teams and players make their own luck- at times. But they never decide where the ball will go when it goes off a hand or onto the ground.
There you have it – the only things that matter are the players on the field that day and where they are in moment; the coaches and their pre-game and in-game plan; the referees and the calls they make or don’t make and lady luck who seems to never choose sides even when it appears she is on our side. It really is that simple.
And all this said, disagree with my list. Chop it up. Have at it. I work with numbers but live off emotion. So I can be swayed. Just looking for a good argument. None of this doesn't mean we won't win tomorrow!!!
GO CATS!
I was just thinking this in John Madden's voice.